The elegant halls of Orbeliani Palace in Tbilisi, Georgia have become the epicenter of a high-stakes presidential showdown that could determine the nation’s trajectory for years to come. On December 29th, 2024, the keys to the 19th-century residence will either remain with pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili or transfer to her pro-Russian challenger, former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili – but neither side is backing down without a fight.
A Nation on a Knife’s Edge
The standoff marks a pivotal moment for Georgia, a small Caucasus nation that has long been pulled between Russia and the West. Tens of thousands have taken to the streets in mass protests against the increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream (GD) party, which nominated Kavelashvili after contentious parliamentary elections in October that many believe were rigged.
GD, founded by shadowy billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili who made his fortune in Russia, has been steering Georgia in a more anti-liberal, pro-Moscow direction. The initial spark for the protests was the party’s decision to suspend EU accession negotiations, outraging the up to 80% of Georgians who support EU membership.
Zourabichvili: The Last Line of Defense?
In the eye of the storm stands Salome Zourabichvili, the French-born descendant of a family that fled Georgia after the Soviet takeover in 1921. Initially elected with GD backing in 2018, she has since emerged as one of the party’s most vocal critics and a symbolic leader of the opposition.
“Zourabichvili is the voice of European Georgia. For many, she is the last legitimate power.”
Prof Kornely Kakachia, Georgian Institute of Politics
With her role as president largely ceremonial, Zourabichvili has nonetheless declared the GD-led government illegitimate and is refusing to vacate the palace. “Let’s see who will be leaving,” she quipped alongside a photo of a train decoration outside the residence – a jab at the ruling party’s threats to have her removed or arrested.
Kavelashvili: Kremlin Puppet or Compromise Candidate?
On the other side stands Kavelashvili, a former Premier League striker turned ultranationalist agitator known for his fiery anti-Western rhetoric. Widely seen as a figurehead controlled by Ivanishvili, he has been mocked for lacking a university degree that previously disqualified him from leading the Georgian Football Federation.
Kavelashvili was also a prominent backer of the controversial “foreign agent” law adopted amid mass protests last year, which critics liken to the Kremlin’s decade-old legislation used to silence dissent. The contrast with the multilingual, diplomatic Zourabichvili could hardly be starker.
An Appeal to the West
Much rides on the West’s response and whether it continues to recognize Zourabichvili as Georgia’s legitimate leader. In a recent speech to EU lawmakers, she appealed for new elections, warning that Europe’s sluggish reaction risks allowing Georgia to slide into dictatorship.
“If we are honest, Europe so far has not fully lived [up] to the moment. Europe has, so far, met the challenge halfway.”
Salome Zourabichvili, Address to European Parliament
But with a politically fractured Europe grappling with its own crises, some fear Western leaders may lack the willpower to confront GD head-on. The party has found allies in Hungary and Slovakia, whose populist leaders blocked proposed EU sanctions on Georgian officials.
The Decisive Moment Approaches
As December 29th nears, Zourabichvili is said to be weighing her options, from forcing a physical removal by police to organizing mass counter-rallies and governing from a parallel office. What’s certain is that renewed protests, and likely crackdowns, lie ahead.
“One side will have to give, eventually,” notes regional expert Thomas de Waal. He warns of a “Belarusian scenario” of mass arrests and torture if GD seeks to retain power at all costs. At this fateful crossroads, the next chapter of Georgia’s turbulent history is about to be written.
