As Georgians head to the polls on Saturday, the nation finds itself at a pivotal juncture, with its democratic future and geopolitical alignment hanging in the balance. This watershed election pits the ruling Georgian Dream party, increasingly aligned with Moscow, against a pro-Western opposition determined to safeguard Georgia’s democratic aspirations.
For three decades, Georgia has maintained a strong pro-Western orientation, with an overwhelming majority of its citizens favoring integration with the European Union. However, under the leadership of the Georgian Dream party, founded by the enigmatic billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the government has steadily drifted towards Russia, displaying reluctance to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to political analysts, this election represents a turning point that will determine whether Georgia becomes a sovereign democracy aligned with the West or succumbs to Russia’s sphere of influence. The stakes extend beyond geopolitics, with the very survival of Georgian democracy on the line.
A Tense Political Landscape
In recent weeks, Ivanishvili and his allies have threatened to ban all major opposition parties and remove opposition lawmakers after the elections, labeling them as “criminals” and “traitors.” During a rare public rally, Ivanishvili doubled down on this pledge, promising to hold a “Nuremberg trial” of members of the main opposition party, United National Movement (UNM).
The Georgian Dream party’s central campaign message, “Choose peace, not war,” implies that the opposition would drag Georgia into a Ukraine-style conflict, while only their leadership can ensure stability. Billboards featuring images of war-torn Ukraine have sprung up across Tbilisi, contrasting with peaceful scenes from Georgia.
“We are at a unique moment when the government is transforming the geopolitical orientation and DNA of the nation,” warned Tina Khidasheli, a former defense minister.
A United Opposition
Recognizing the urgency of the situation, Georgia’s often-divided opposition has attempted to unite by forming four pro-European blocs, vowing to cooperate. The largest of these, UNM, has expressed willingness to commit to forming an interim technocratic government in case of a Georgian Dream loss.
However, UNM remains a divisive proposition, with many Georgians still angered by the human rights abuses and arbitrary detentions that marred its founder Mikheil Saakashvili’s second term as president. Saakashvili is currently imprisoned on charges his allies claim are politically motivated.
Fears of Election Manipulation
Opposition leaders and civil society groups fear that if polls show a tight race, the ruling party may attempt to manipulate the results, potentially triggering mass protests and a harsh police crackdown. There are also questions about whether Ivanishvili would voluntarily relinquish power if defeated.
“I am worried that protests are almost inevitable. I don’t think the current government is willing to step down democratically,” said Zuka Berdzenishvili, a co-founder of the Georgian pro-democracy movement Shame.
Earlier this year, tens of thousands protested against a “foreign agents” bill requiring media and NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence.” Critics likened the legislation to repressive laws enacted in Russia to silence dissent.
As Georgians cast their ballots, the world watches anxiously, aware that the outcome of this election could have profound implications not only for Georgia but for the broader geopolitical landscape. Will the nation reaffirm its commitment to democracy and Western integration, or will it succumb to the lure of authoritarianism and Moscow’s orbit? The answer lies in the hands of the Georgian people.
