The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is already being tested, mere days after coming into effect. On Monday, the Lebanese militant group launched rockets at an Israeli watchtower in the disputed Shebaa Farms area, the first such attack since the truce was announced last week. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond “strongly” to any violations.
According to Hezbollah, the rocket strike was an “initial defensive warning” in response to what it called Israel’s repeated breaches of the ceasefire agreement. The group said the rockets landed in open areas and caused no injuries. But the attack threatens to unravel the delicate peace and plunge the region back into devastating conflict.
13 Months of Devastation
The ceasefire, brokered with French assistance, aimed to end 13 months of fighting that began in October 2023 when Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel in solidarity with a Hamas attack. The war exacted a heavy toll, especially on Lebanon:
- Nearly 4,000 Lebanese killed by Israeli strikes
- Over 1 million displaced
- £6.7 billion in damages
In northern Israel, more than 60,000 people remain displaced by Hezbollah’s rocket barrages. Residents on both sides of the border had just begun returning home and taking stock of the destruction when Monday’s flare-up occurred.
Contentious Truce Terms
A key sticking point in the ceasefire deal revolves around Israel’s insistence on the right to unilaterally respond to any perceived Hezbollah violations. The Israelis are seeking assurances from the US that they can take action if the Lebanese army fails to prevent Hezbollah activities in the south.
Hezbollah rejects any Israeli military presence or overflights in Lebanon as a violation of sovereignty. The group says it is prepared to retaliate for Israeli breaches, with one MP declaring they are keeping their “hands on the trigger.”
We will not accept any encroachment on our right to self-defense.
Hassan Fadlallah, Hezbollah MP
France’s Impossible Task
France, which helped mediate the deal, is supposed to supervise its implementation. But with Israel already accused of over 50 violations in the first few days and no enforcement mechanism, it’s unclear how Paris can keep the lid on tensions.
The escalation comes as Lebanon attempts to begin recovering from the immense damage inflicted by Israeli bombardments. With a third of the country’s population displaced and a quarter of its buildings damaged or destroyed, the road ahead is long and uncertain.
An Elusive Peace
For those who bore the brunt of the war, even a temporary cessation of hostilities is welcome. But few are under any illusion that the underlying conflict has been resolved. Fundamental disputes over borders, security, and sovereignty remain.
Monday’s rocket attack may have been limited in scope, but it carries an ominous message: the tinderbox of the Israeli-Lebanese frontier can erupt again at any moment. Without a more comprehensive settlement, the specter of another ruinous war will continue to loom over this scarred land.
As the dust settles on the latest spasm of violence, the desperate hope is that both sides will step back from the brink. Leaders in Jerusalem, Beirut, and beyond face the daunting task of transforming a tenuous truce into a durable peace – or risk seeing the region consumed by bloodshed once more.
