In a surprising turn of events, Ireland’s general election has positioned the two main parties of the outgoing coalition government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, to potentially lead the next parliament despite trailing the leftwing nationalist party Sinn Féin in a close three-way race. The complex results set the stage for a period of uncertainty as the parties jockey to secure a governing majority.
Sinn Féin’s Strong Showing
An exit poll indicated that Sinn Féin garnered 21.1% of first-preference votes, narrowly outpacing Fine Gael at 21% and Fianna Fáil at 19.5%. However, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out partnering with Sinn Féin, leaving them as the favorites to form the next government together.
Two-party politics is now gone. It’s been consigned to the dustbin of history.
– Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin Leader
McDonald declared her intention to try to create a government, arguing that the election result gives Sinn Féin the same legitimacy as the two established parties. “The question now arises for us: what do we do with that? And we are clear that we want to change people’s lives,” she stated.
Coalition Prospects
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are each projected to secure between 30 and 40 seats. With the support of a third party, they could reach the 87 seats needed for a majority in the 160-seat parliament. The Social Democrats have emerged as a potential kingmaker, with projections suggesting they could win over eight seats.
After the results are all in, we will talk to all parties. We talked to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael last time, and we will again this time round.
– Cian O’Callaghan, Social Democrats Deputy Leader
Greens Falter, Migration a Minor Issue
In contrast to Sinn Féin’s gains, the Green Party, which had been the third partner in the outgoing coalition, faced a wipeout. Leader Roderic O’Gorman’s seat is in jeopardy as the Greens look to lose nearly all of their 12 seats. O’Gorman reflected, “Change is difficult. Sometimes, when you’re driving change, it upsets things.“
Notably, the issue of migration, which has factored heavily in other recent European elections, did not play a major role in Ireland. An exit poll showed it was the top priority for just 6% of voters, despite violent clashes over asylum seekers in the past year. Instead, housing and homelessness, cost of living, health, and the economy dominated voter concerns.
Counting Continues
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, vote counting in the 43 constituencies began Saturday morning but final results may not be known until Sunday night or Monday. Tallies suggest potential upsets, including trouble for Fianna Fáil in Wicklow, where the health minister Stephen Donnelly risks losing his seat as his party’s only candidate.
Jack Chambers, the outgoing Fianna Fáil finance minister, characterized the national result as “too close to call” but argued the exit poll showed the public did not want the “volatility” that far-right parties have brought to other countries.
I think there is a problem that Irish politics has faced since the fragmentation and the economic crash in 2011 – that now we’re not sure who’s going to be in government.
– Gary Murphy, Professor of Politics, Dublin City University
Forming a Government
The inconclusive election outcome means the focus now shifts to the search for viable coalition partners. Government formation talks could take weeks, with the possibility of no new government until January.
As the postmortem of the election unfolds, observers are assessing the implications for Ireland’s political landscape. Some argue Sinn Féin should have presented a stronger narrative of change earlier, while smaller parties assert the need for alternatives to the long-dominant Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, two parties that emerged from the ashes of the civil war in the 1920s, are becoming one party in many ways and impossible to distinguish from each other.
– Peadar Tóibín, Aontú Party Leader
As the horse-trading begins, the one certainty is that Ireland’s political future hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will reveal whether the two traditional ruling parties can retain their grip on power or if a new era of Irish politics is on the horizon.
