As fantasy football managers set their lineups for Week 10, many face tough start/sit decisions that could make or break their matchups. While it’s tempting to lean on gut feelings, savvy owners know that cold hard facts should guide roster choices. Let’s break down some of this week’s most vexing start/sit dilemmas and analyze what the data suggests is the optimal play.
Aaron Rodgers Poised to Produce vs. Cardinals
Coming off a five-touchdown performance, Aaron Rodgers draws a mouthwatering matchup against an Arizona defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Jets’ signal caller ranks top-10 in pass attempts, yards, and TDs, and his chemistry with Davante Adams continues to blossom. With a narrow one-point spread and likely shootout game script, fire up Rodgers as a high-end QB1.
Cardinals RBs Conner and Benson Both Viable Plays
James Conner has provided RB1 value all season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in seven of nine games. The bell cow back ranks fifth in red zone looks and has topped 100 rushing yards four times. Meanwhile, rookie Trey Benson saw an expanded role last week with nine touches and 28% snap share. As Conner’s direct handcuff with three-down potential, Benson makes an intriguing bench stash heading into the stretch run.
Broncos WR Javonte Williams a Risky Play vs. Chiefs
Although Javonte Williams provides a solid weekly floor via receiving usage (18% target share, 12 routes per game), his fantasy upside may be capped in a brutal road matchup at Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the fewest running back fantasy points and just 3.7 yards per carry to the position. With Bo Nix often poaching goal-line carries, Williams is a low-end flex at best in Week 10.
DeAndre Hopkins returns to form via multi-TD explosion in win over Titans
ESPN Fantasy Expert
Fresh off a two-score performance, DeAndre Hopkins has regained alpha status in the Chiefs’ passing attack. Spending 40% of his snaps in the slot, the veteran wideout can evade top Broncos corner Pat Surtain II on some routes. As Patrick Mahomes’ clear No. 2 option behind Travis Kelce, Hopkins boasts tantalizing WR2 upside moving forward.
Manage Expectations for Bears WR DJ Moore
Despite DJ Moore’s elite talent, the Bears’ inconsistent passing game limits his fantasy ceiling. The contested-catch specialist has finished under 40 receiving yards in four of his last five and now faces lockdown Patriots rookie corner Christian Gonzalez. With Chicago favored by nearly a touchdown in a game with a paltry 39.5-point over/under, Moore looks more like a volatile WR3.
49ers Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall an Upside Flex
Injuries to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have thrust rookie Ricky Pearsall into a prominent role, and the first-year wideout has responded with back-to-back efficient outings. Pearsall’s 68% snap rate and sure hands set him up nicely against a leaky Bucs secondary surrendering the sixth-most receptions and fantasy points to opposing WRs. Plug in Pearsall as a boom/bust WR3 in a potential shootout (51.5-point total).
Ride Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith on MNF
One of 2024’s pleasant fantasy surprises, Jonnu Smith has commanded six-plus targets in four straight while pacing the Dolphins in receiving yards since their Week 6 bye. The Rams have been victimized by tight ends all year, coughing up the third-most fantasy points to the position. With several other TE studs on bye, Smith makes a rock-solid TE1 streamer in Week 10’s Monday night tilt.
At a position full of surprises, Smith has emerged as a pleasant discovery.
Liz Loza, ESPN Fantasy Analyst
Ultimately, while it’s important to trust one’s instincts when setting fantasy lineups, this week’s start/sit verdicts should be primarily driven by matchups, usage trends, and the latest player updates. By taking an analytical approach and blocking out the noise, fantasy managers can make sound, data-driven Week 10 roster decisions as they pursue the sweet taste of playoff glory.
