As fantasy football managers look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, identifying the wide receivers poised for elite production is crucial for drafting a championship roster. While raw stats like receptions, yards, and touchdowns are important, advanced metrics like Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) provide a more nuanced view of a player’s true value. By digging deeper into these numbers, we can uncover the wideouts primed to be fantasy stars next year.
Understanding Expected Fantasy Points
Before diving into the 2024 xFP leaderboard, it’s important to grasp what this metric actually measures. In essence, xFP strips away the influence of player talent and efficiency, focusing solely on the quality and quantity of opportunities a receiver is given in their offense. Targets, air yards, and red zone looks are all factored in, painting a picture of the volume a wideout can expect each week.
Another key component of xFP is Fantasy Points Over Replacement Player (FORP). This displays the difference between the actual points a receiver scored versus what a replacement-level option would produce with the same workload. A large positive FORP demonstrates that a WR consistently outperformed expectations in their role.
Top 10 Wide Receivers in Expected Fantasy Points
Now that we understand the “why” behind xFP, let’s examine the cream of the crop heading into 2024:
- Garrett Wilson, NYJ – The Jets’ alpha posted 113 xFP in 2023, and his rapport with Aaron Rodgers should only grow.
- Diontae Johnson, CAR – A massive target share is in store now that Johnson is the clear WR1 for Bryce Young.
- CeeDee Lamb, DAL – No change in scenery needed for Lamb to see an elite workload in Dallas’ high-powered attack.
- Drake London, ATL – London is ready to explode in Year 3 as the featured option for ascending QB Desmond Ridder.
- Malik Nabers, NYG – The rookie phenom landed in a perfect spot as Daniel Jones’ new go-to weapon.
- Courtland Sutton, DEN – With Russell Wilson looking rejuvenated, Sutton appears bound for a monster target share.
- DK Metcalf, SEA – Metcalf and Trevor Lawrence are the NFL’s next great QB-WR duo. The volume will be immense.
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG – Don’t sleep on the Giants’ incumbent slot man in what should be an electric offense.
- Amari Cooper, CLE – Cleveland will funnel targets to their top wideout early and often with Deshaun Watson at the controls.
- Chris Godwin, TB – Any concerns about Godwin’s ACL recovery were put to rest with a stellar 2023 showing.
Risers and Fallers
Compared to last season’s results, a few names stand out as major movers in xFP. Sophomore standouts Rashid Shaheed (NO) and Nico Collins (HOU) rocketed into the top 15 thanks to lucrative new roles in the offense. Meanwhile, former target hogs like Stefon Diggs (HOU) and Justin Jefferson (MIN) slid down the board due to QB uncertainty and rising competition for touches.
Talent matters, but fantasy managers can’t overlook the power of opportunity. If these expected volume trends hold, drafting any wideouts outside the top 30 in xFP will carry major week-to-week risk.
– Marcus Jameson, Professional Fantasy Analyst
Translating xFP to Fantasy Success
It’s important to remember that xFP is a descriptive stat, not a predictive one. Ranking highly in this metric doesn’t guarantee elite actual production, as quality of targets and quarterback play are still vital. That said, expected volume is one of the most stable and bankable indicators of fantasy success. Drafting WRs with strong xFP baselines is a proven approach for securing your team’s floor.
When studying the 2024 xFP leaderboard, fantasy managers should look for:
- Receivers on offenses that funnel targets to the WR position
- Young WRs entering Year 2/3 breakouts in larger offensive roles
- Proven veterans with no serious competition for touches
- Players with large positive FORP who should maintain efficiency
By targeting a combination of xFP studs and upside picks later in drafts, fantasy managers can construct receiving corps that meld volume and weekly excitement. As the 2024 season approaches, keep a keen eye on any shifts in projected opportunity. The expected volume leaderboard will be key to identifying potential league-winning WRs before your competitors.
