The first two weeks of the NBA season are in the books, and already the takes are flying. Is LaMelo Ball a top 12 fantasy player? Are the Cleveland Cavaliers legitimate contenders in the East? Should Victor Wembanyama have gone No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts?
It’s still early, but some trends are emerging that could have major implications for fantasy managers and NBA bettors. To help separate the signal from the noise, we turned to ESPN’s top basketball minds for their thoughts on the season’s biggest overreactions so far.
Are the Cavs True Contenders?
The Cavaliers are the last undefeated team in the East, sitting atop the conference at 6-1. With statement wins over the Bucks (twice) and Knicks, is it time to consider them serious threats to make the Finals?
“Not an overreaction,” says ESPN’s Andre Snellings. “The Cavaliers finished fourth in the East the last two years with a young core that’s just entering its prime. They have a top-4 defense and top-2 offense so far, and I think those are sustainable. The Cavs are excellent value to go over 53.5 wins.”
But What About the Warriors?
Speaking of fast starts, the defending champion Warriors are also 6-1 out of the gate. Does that make them title favorites again, even in a loaded West?
“Overreaction. I don’t have confidence in the Warriors, who have just the seventh-best title odds in their conference. The West is extremely deep, and while Curry is still elite, he’s 37 and doesn’t have a clear second star. It’s hard to see this team as serious contenders compared to the Suns, Nuggets, and others.”
– Eric Moody, ESPN Fantasy Basketball Analyst
Is LaMelo a Fantasy First-Rounder?
Two years removed from a season largely lost to injury, Hornets guard LaMelo Ball is on pace for career-highs across the board. He’s currently the No. 12 overall player on the ESPN Player Rater. Is this finally the year he cements himself as a fantasy stud?
Moody doesn’t think it’s an overreaction at all. “Ball’s ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him incredibly valuable in category leagues. He’s one of only five players averaging at least 25 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal so far. The others are all top-12 players. As long as he stays healthy, Ball is here to stay as an elite option.”
Did Everyone Overrate Wembanyama?
The most hyped rookie since LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama was the consensus No. 1 pick in category leagues and a popular top choice in points formats. But his pedestrian averages of 18.9 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists have him barely clinging to first-round value. Did we all just fall victim to Wemby Mania?
- Snellings calls it an overreaction, pointing to Wembanyama’s incredible per-game highs and strong finish to his rookie year overseas.
- “Even in a slower start, Wemby’s best games would have him averaging 29 points, 20 rebounds, 7 assists, 9 blocks and 5 steals. He’s just getting started, and by season’s end, I think he could even overtake Jokic in the fantasy rankings.”
The three-time reigning MVP is off to an absurd start, nearly averaging a 30-point triple-double on elite efficiency. No other player is within 10 fantasy points per game of Jokic’s average. In retrospect, he seems like the obvious No. 1 pick, but is it an overreaction to crown him this early?
“While the Joker is operating at his MVP finest, I’m still open to the idea that by season’s end, Wemby will have overtaken him in the fantasy points and category rankings.
– Andre Snellings
The fantasy basketball season is a marathon, not a sprint. But for managers looking to gain an early edge, these are the storylines and overreactions to watch closely. Making the right moves now could be the difference between a championship and an early exit.
Will the Cavs keep rolling? Can LaMelo sustain his scorching start? Is Wembanyama destined for rookie of the year, or will Jokic lap the field once again in the MVP race? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure – in fantasy basketball, it pays to react quickly. Just make sure you’re reacting to the right things.
