In a surprising turn of events, the Atlanta Falcons have benched veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie sensation Michael Penix Jr. for their crucial Week 16 matchup against the New York Giants. The decision comes amidst a disappointing stretch that saw Cousins throw nine interceptions to just one touchdown over the past five games, as the Falcons slid from first place to a precarious 7-7 record, barely clinging to fading playoff hopes.
While the on-field implications are significant, the financial ramifications of this quarterback shakeup could be even more consequential for the Falcons franchise. Cousins, who inked a mammoth 4-year, $180 million contract with Atlanta just last offseason, has around $100 million in guarantees remaining on his deal. This leaves the Falcons front office facing a daunting dilemma: absorb a massive cap hit by cutting ties with their high-priced passer or try to salvage value via trade in a market where demand may be limited.
Crunching the Cap Numbers
If the Falcons decide to part ways with Cousins before the start of the 2025 league year on March 12th, they would incur a staggering $65 million in dead money against their salary cap. This sum includes his fully guaranteed base salary of $27.5 million for next season plus $37.5 million in remaining prorated bonus money.
One potential avenue to lessen the short-term pain would be designating Cousins as a post-June 1 cut. This would allow Atlanta to spread the dead money hit over two years: $40 million in 2025 and $25 million in 2026. While providing some immediate relief, this approach would still leave a sizable dent in the Falcons’ cap space for the foreseeable future.
Trying to Find a Trade Partner
Alternatively, the Falcons could seek to trade Cousins and the remaining years on his contract. However, any potential deal would likely require Atlanta to eat a significant portion of his 2025 salary. Cousins does have a no-trade clause, giving him some control over the process, but his openness to a fresh start elsewhere could facilitate a move.
Finding a trade partner willing to take on Cousins’ contract, even at a reduced rate, may prove challenging. Despite his track record of productivity, concerns about his age (he’ll be 37 next season) and the lingering effects of last year’s Achilles surgery could limit his market. Teams with unsettled QB situations like the Jets, Commanders, and Buccaneers could kick the tires, but the Falcons’ leverage to extract meaningful draft capital appears minimal.
Fontenot’s Foggy Future
For Falcons GM Terry Fontenot, the handling of the Cousins situation represents a defining moment. Fontenot earned plaudits for deftly navigating the team out of salary cap purgatory in recent years, but the decision to splurge on Cousins last spring now looms as a potentially crippling misstep.
Fontenot has done an admirable job improving our cap health and raising the overall talent level of the roster. But if the Cousins deal blows up in our face, that’s the kind of setback that can derail a rebuild and cost people jobs.
– Anonymous Falcons Front Office Source
Much will hinge on whether Fontenot and the Falcons brain trust can find a graceful exit ramp from the Cousins contract. Extracting even mild draft compensation while shedding the bulk of the financial obligations would constitute a win. Failing that, the dead money albatross could hamstring the team’s ability to build around a young core led by Penix, Drake London, and Arnold Ebiketie.
The Penix Plan
Amidst the uncertainty, the emergence of Penix offers a glimmer of hope for Falcons faithful. The 6’4″ passer from Michigan set school records in his final collegiate season, flashing a tantalizing blend of arm talent, mobility, and quick processing. His maturation during his rookie year, even in a limited backup role, impressed coaches and teammates alike.
- In collegiate career at Michigan: 76 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 8952 yards
- OROY and OPOY favorite entering 2024 season prior to draft
- Has taken almost all first-team practice reps for Falcons since training camp
Penix’s first start will come in a high-stakes environment against a stingy Giants defense with massive playoff implications on the line. While it’s far too early to anoint him as the franchise’s savior, a strong showing could accelerate the Falcons’ transition timeline and make Cousins’ departure feel more palatable.
Charting a Path Forward
As the Falcons navigate this unexpected quarterback quandary, their path forward appears laced with financial landmines and on-field uncertainty. The specter of Cousins’ contract, once celebrated as a signal of the team’s ambitious intentions, now casts a pall over their short-term outlook.
But for a proud franchise that’s endured its share of heartbreak and hardship, this latest challenge is one they can’t afford to shirk from. With deft cap management, shrewd talent evaluation, and a dose of luck, the Falcons may yet emerge from this tumultuous chapter with a new face under center and renewed hope for the future. The first step in that journey begins Sunday at the Meadowlands, with all eyes on a rookie quarterback tasked with sparking a dormant offense and salvaging a season on the brink.
