As the dust settles on Donald Trump’s tumultuous first week back in the Oval Office, European capitals find themselves treading on eggshells, unsure of what the re-elected and reinvigorated president might unleash next. From trade wars to Greenland ambitions, from Nato spending demands to the specter of a Trump-Musk alliance, the old continent braces for a rollercoaster ride ahead.
Early Salvoes and Cautious Responses
In his trademark style, Trump kicked off his second term with a barrage of mixed signals. While he railed against the US trade deficit, immediate tariffs on European goods were absent, though the threat looms large. His first move on Ukraine was to pressure Putin, a rare point of alignment with Europe. The demand for Nato allies to spend an implausible 5% of GDP on defense was largely brushed off as bluster.
Faced with this scattershot approach, Europe has opted for a cautious, measured response. Leaders like Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron have underscored European unity and economic strength, portraying a continent ready to weather any Trumpian tempest. The fragile Franco-German axis at the EU’s heart seeks to project calm in choppy waters.
The Greenland Gambit
Just as Europe thought it had weathered the initial storm, Trump circled back to a pet project from his first term: acquiring Greenland. Dismissing Danish sovereignty, he insisted “we’re going to have it”, leaving Copenhagen stunned and Europeans wary of how far he might go in his arctic ambitions. Extortion and coercion appear to be on the table, even against close allies.
He has said he is ready to use economic and military coercion to take it.
– Nathalie Tocci, Director of Istituto Affari Internazionali
Internal Fault Lines
Europe’s ability to maintain a united front against Trump is complicated by its own internal divisions. The continent’s far-right, on the ascent from Italy to Hungary, sees in Trump a potential ally for undermining the liberal order. Figures like Viktor Orbán and Giorgia Meloni seek to position themselves as bridges to the new Washington, fracturing any hope of a cohesive European response.
Brexit has left the UK especially vulnerable, its solo threat of retaliatory sanctions far less potent than a united European response. London’s diminished clout and the allure of a US trade deal risk seeing it become a pawn in Trump’s game, rather than an equal player.
The Musk Factor
Compounding Europe’s predicament is the specter of a Trump-Musk alliance, with the Tesla tycoon’s Twitter takeover turning the platform into a bastion of right-wing thought. Attempts to regulate social media behemoths like Twitter could provoke reprisals from an administration in lockstep with Silicon Valley’s most disruptive force.
Let’s take back control. Let’s make social media great again.
– Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain
As the Trump-Musk axis crystallizes, it’s clear his second term poses a more existential threat to the European project than his first. No longer dismissed as a blip, Trumpism is now seen as a durable shift in American politics, one that a divided Europe is ill-equipped to counter. The path ahead is treacherous, and missteps could prove fatal to the dream of an “ever closer union”.
In the face of this onslaught, Europe must dig deep, shore up its internal rifts, and present a united front if it hopes to weather the gathering storm. The alternative is a slow slide into irrelevance, a continent adrift in a world where the tides of populism and personality politics threaten to swamp the post-war liberal order. The stakes could hardly be higher as Europe navigates its most perilous hour since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
