As European leaders convene in Paris to formulate a response to being seemingly excluded from discussions about Ukraine’s future by Donald Trump, the all-consuming question of how to sway an unrestrained U.S. president weighs heavily on their minds. Trump’s apparent pivot away from Europe has left a void of uncertainty that threatens to unravel decades of transatlantic cooperation.
The existential dilemma facing Europe was laid bare at the Munich Security Conference last week, where Trump’s vice president JD Vance delivered a speech that many saw as endorsing far-right political forces within Europe itself. His portrayal of a continent shackled by “kommissars” and “censorship” shocked the audience, prompting German defense minister Boris Pistorius to call it simply “unacceptable.”
Europe Divided on Engaging Trump 2.0
The consensus emerging from Munich is that Trump’s second term represents an even more disruptive force than Europe’s worst fears. Abrupt foreign policy decisions and a string of executive orders have left allies reeling. The psychological challenge, as former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger put it, is adapting to “a rules-free amoral world order” where raw power trumps multilateralism.
Yet European leaders remain divided on two key issues – whether the rupture with America can be mended, and discerning Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimate intentions in Ukraine, a question as perplexing as decoding Trump’s desires.
Competing Visions for Salvaging U.S. Ties
One school of thought, articulated by former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, contends that substantially boosting European defense spending could recapture Washington’s attention. “We need to take more responsibility, hike up defense spending, and think how Europe can give value added to the U.S.,” he argued.
Others like Nathalie Tocci, head of the Italian Institute of International Affairs, question whether the transatlantic schism runs deeper. She pondered, “Should we not consider there is a scenario out there, in which there is absolutely nothing we can do to rekindle that love, affection, and interest, and therefore we are alone, facing a U.S. administration that deliberately wants to weaken and divide us?”
Massive Defense Investment Needed
Despite the angst, most European leaders still see value in a transatlantic partnership, even if a loveless one. Divorce remains too frightening to seriously contemplate. The focus instead is on a drastic increase in EU defense spending, not just to placate Trump, but to grant Europe more strategic autonomy.
If EU spending could be increased from 2% to 3% of GDP, hundreds of billions of investment would be unlocked.
– Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President
However, mustering the military might to backstop Ukraine’s security would require staggering resources, potentially 150,000 troops on permanent rotation according to one analysis. Without steadfast U.S. support, experts warn a European contingent risks being an unconvincing “bluff” that could invite Russian aggression.
Deciphering Putin’s Intentions
Compounding matters is the enigma of Putin’s designs beyond Ukraine. Many Europeans view Russia’s assault as part of a broader imperialist agenda that could metastasize if left unchecked. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned allowing Putin to “vassalize” Ukraine would embolden authoritarian forces worldwide.
Sikorski even lightheartedly suggested using Europe’s sway over the Nobel Peace Prize as leverage over Trump, quipping, “If you want to earn it, a peace has to be fair.” Humor aside, his point underscored the high geopolitical stakes hinging on how this crisis unfolds.
Charting a Path Forward
As Europe grapples with its existential Trump dilemma, calls for unity and clear-eyed strategizing grow louder. Leaders recognize salvaging U.S. ties will require bold gestures and uncomfortable concessions. Ultimately, the true test may be whether European solidarity can withstand the centrifugal forces unleashed by an unbound Trump.
For now, Europe seems resolved to navigate this new “incentives world” with a combination of pragmatism and principle. The path will undoubtedly be turbulent. But as Finnish President Sauli Niinistö counseled, “We need to talk less and do more.” Sage advice as the transatlantic alliance braces for its most trying chapter yet.
