As leaders gather for the Munich Security Conference, a sense of dread and humiliation hangs over Europe. Once again, Vladimir Putin’s actions are disrupting the transatlantic security order – but this time, the EU finds itself largely sidelined and powerless to shape the outcome. With former US President Donald Trump poised to open game-changing talks with Putin that could end with Russia dismembering Ukraine, Europe is confronting the consequences of its failure to bolster its own defense capabilities and strategic autonomy.
Asleep at the Wheel
For years, Europe has heard the alarm bells about its overreliance on the US security umbrella. Repeated wake-up calls, from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to Trump’s tumultuous first term, prompted a flurry of soul-searching and strategic reviews in Brussels. Leaders issued dire warnings about the need to take Europe’s destiny into its own hands. French President Emmanuel Macron even declared NATO “brain dead.”
Yet for all the handwringing, the EU largely failed to act with the urgency and decisiveness the moment demanded. Despite setting ambitious targets, like reaching 2% of GDP in defense spending, and launching new initiatives like the European Defence Fund, progress has been painfully slow. A “Strategic Compass” to boost the EU’s security and defense capabilities, adopted in 2022, has proven more symbolic than substantive.
Failure of Imagination
The hard reality is that after the shock of Trump’s election, the EU never truly succeeded in “Trump-proofing” itself. Talk of strategic autonomy remained just that – talk. When Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, bluntly told Europe that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on its security, no one could feign surprise. Europe had ample warning that Ukraine could become a sacrificial lamb to reset US-Russia relations – and did little to avert it.
Until and unless we feel Ukraine’s fight is our fight, we will keep having these trade-off conversations. It’s not going to be sufficient.
Nathalie Tocci, Istituto Affari Internazionali
The reasons for Europe’s inertia are many – divergent threat perceptions, entrenched habits of outsourcing to the US, domestic political constraints. Germany’s €100bn defense spending boost after Russia’s invasion went largely to American systems. Joint EU financing and procurement remain a distant dream. But fundamentally, it comes down to a failure of imagination – and political will – to treat Europe’s defense as an existential priority requiring difficult trade-offs.
Facing the Consequences
Now, as Trump and Putin prepare to carve up Ukraine’s future between them, Europe finds itself grappling with its own powerlessness and irrelevance. Incensed but impotent, the EU can only watch as its pleas to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty fall on deaf ears in Washington and Moscow. Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself acknowledged the worthlessness of European security guarantees without US backing.
The price of this humiliation goes beyond Ukraine. It cuts to the heart of the postwar European project and the viability of the transatlantic partnership. If this is what “America First” looks like, can Europe ever trust the US to have its back? What’s to stop future US presidents from similar betrayals? The unraveling of the liberal international order that kept Europe whole, free, and at peace for 75 years now seems frighteningly real.
Doubling Down on Europe
For the EU, this must be a wake-up call like no other. No more gradualism, no more self-delusion. The hard, unglamorous work of building Europe’s strategic sovereignty – through increased defense budgets, shared capabilities, reformed financing – can brook no further delay. A planned €500bn EU defense bond, resisted by Germany, merits fast-tracking. So do long-stalled efforts to forge a common European defense industry and procurement strategy.
More fundamentally, Europe needs a psychological shift – to stop outsourcing its security and start behaving like a geopolitical player in its own right. This means painful choices and domestic battles, as Olaf Scholz is discovering in Germany. But if Europe doesn’t step up, no one else will. In a world where even treaty allies turn transactional, values like democracy and territorial integrity need their own sword and shield.
The road ahead for Europe is daunting but inescapable. The age of perpetual peace is over; hard power politics has returned with a vengeance. Caught between a revisionist Russia and a fickle US, the EU must become a strategically autonomous pole in the multipolar order taking shape. How it navigates the current crisis will set the tone for a perilous new era – one the EU cannot sit out without risking its own demise.
