The NFL playoffs are heating up as the divisional round kicks off this weekend. With four marquee matchups on tap, bettors are scouring the odds in search of an edge. Where is the betting value to be found? Our expert handicapper Ben Solak is here to share his insights on the key numbers to know.
Rams-Eagles Under the Radar
The Los Angeles Rams bested the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, but Solak isn’t buying the hype around their offense just yet. The Rams have struggled to put up points consistently in recent weeks, failing to top 20 points in three of their last four meaningful games. Now they must travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles defense that has been among the NFL’s best.
Solak sees the Eagles controlling this game on the ground with their potent rushing attack, keeping the ball out of Matthew Stafford’s hands. Mix in some inclement weather at Lincoln Financial Field, and the ingredients are there for a low-scoring slugfest. Solak’s play: Rams UNDER 17.5 team total points.
Texans-Chiefs Could Go Low
On the AFC side, Solak is eyeing the total in the Houston Texans’ rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans are coming off an upset victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, but repeating that performance in the frigid conditions at Arrowhead Stadium will be a tall order. Houston’s passing game is severely undermanned heading into this one.
The Chiefs will get a boost in the secondary with the return of cornerback Jaylen Watson. Solak expects Kansas City to focus on shutting down Texans standout receiver Nico Collins, daring Houston’s other pass catchers to beat them. Points could be at a premium here, so Solak is backing the UNDER 41.5 total points for Texans-Chiefs.
Prop Bet Potpourri
Player props are an increasingly popular wagering option, and Solak has a handful of favorites for the divisional round slate:
- Jared Goff UNDER 33.5 passing attempts: Look for the Lions to control the game on the ground vs Washington.
- David Montgomery OVER 50 rushing yards: Montgomery seems healthy and should see ample volume in a friendly matchup if game script goes as expected.
- Zach Ertz UNDER 29.5 receiving yards: Ertz may struggle for production against the Lions’ heavy dose of man coverage and blitzes.
- John Metchie 4+ receptions: With Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out, expect Metchie to see short targets as the Chiefs bracket Nico Collins.
- Derrick Henry 2+ receptions: The Bills have been vulnerable to running backs in the passing game, giving Henry a chance for an unusual receiving line.
With these picks in your pocket, you’ll have action in every game of what promises to be a thrilling divisional playoff weekend. Remember that key betting edges often arise not from the flashiest marquee matchup, but from a deep dive into the overlooked angles. Examining unsung factors like weather, defensive schemes, and injury-driven opportunity can reveal sneaky value. Here’s to hoping these wagers help deliver a profitable playoff round. Best of luck!
