As the midterm elections draw near, all eyes are on Montana’s closely watched Senate race, which could determine control of the evenly split chamber. The contest between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is widely seen as a litmus test of whether Democrats can still win in largely rural states that have increasingly embraced the GOP in recent years.
Tester’s Fight for Political Survival
Tester, a moderate Democrat and third-generation Montana farmer, has served in the Senate for 18 years. Known for his authenticity and tireless work on behalf of the agriculture industry, veterans, and Native American communities, Tester epitomizes the retail politics that once allowed Democrats to thrive in rural states.
However, Montana’s political landscape has shifted significantly since Tester first took office. Republicans have steadily picked off Democratic strongholds, leaving Tester as the last statewide elected Democrat. Opinion polls suggest he is now trailing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL with no prior political experience who has aligned himself closely with former President Donald Trump.
The Nationalization of Politics
In an era of increasing political tribalism and declining local media, Tester faces an uphill battle to convince voters to split their tickets. Republican-aligned groups are spending millions to tie him to national Democrats like President Kamala Harris, whom Tester has notably declined to endorse.
Republicans have totally tried to nationalise this race. Every chance they get, whenever they say Tester they say Biden or Harris.
– Mike Dennison, veteran political journalist and analyst
Demographic Shifts and Housing Affordability
Montana has witnessed an influx of newcomers in recent years, many of them Republicans fleeing liberal cities. Nearly half of Montanans were not born in the state, and they know or care little for Tester’s long service or the state’s independent streak. Sheehy has attempted to blame immigrants for driving up housing costs, though evidence suggests wealthy out-of-staters are a bigger factor.
Abortion Rights as a Wildcard
Democrats are hoping that the issue of reproductive freedom, in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, could galvanize turnout among young, female, and progressive voters. A ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution will appear on November’s ballot, potentially boosting Tester.
The Stakes for Democrats
If Tester falls to his less experienced but Trump-aligned challenger, it will mark the extinction of yet another Democratic bastion in rural America. The race symbolizes the accelerating sorting of red and blue states, and the challenges Democrats face in campaigning on local issues in an increasingly nationalized, partisan political environment.
Over time, the brand of Democrats in areas like this has just been eroded. The difficult question for me is, how do you build it back?
– Ken Toole, former Democratic state senator
As Montana goes, so goes the nation? The answer could reshape the balance of power in Washington and offer clues to the future viability of Democrats in America’s heartland. With control of the Senate hanging by a thread, Tester’s political fate may also be his party’s.
