The wait is finally over. After years of debates, discussions, and demands for change, the College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams starting this season. The new format promises more access, more excitement, and more madness than ever before. But with the bracket now locked in place, the biggest question on everyone’s mind is: who will survive and advance through this perilous playoff gauntlet?
Setting the Playoff Stage
Before we dive into the round-by-round predictions, let’s quickly recap how we got here. The 12-team model is a drastic shift from the 4-team format that’s been in place since 2014. The new system will give byes to the top 4 seeds and home games to seeds 5-8 in the first round. It will incorporate the six highest-ranked conference champions, as well as 6 at-large selections.
After a thrilling championship weekend, the final bracket is now set. As expected, undefeated Oregon takes the top seed after winning the Pac-12 in a shootout over Penn State. The Georgia Bulldogs, even with 2 losses, are the No. 2 seed after avenging their earlier defeat to Texas in the SEC title game. Speaking of the Longhorns, they fall to the No. 3 seed and will host 12th seeded Clemson in what looks like the juiciest of the first-round matchups.
In a surprising twist, Arizona State and Boise State crashed the party and earned first-round byes by winning their respective conference championships. The Sun Devils were picked last in the preseason Big 12 media poll but shocked the world with an undefeated run through the league. The Broncos, no strangers to postseason magic, are more than capable of making noise as the No. 4 seed.
First Round Forecasts
The opening round of the playoff will feature four fascinating games. In addition to the Texas-Clemson heavyweight bout, we’ll see Ohio State head to Knoxville to face Tennessee in a battle between college football blue bloods looking to reestablish themselves as national powers. Penn State will host SMU in what could be the most entertaining offensive showcase of the round, with both teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring. And in a unique all-Indiana affair, Notre Dame welcomes the upstart Hoosiers to South Bend.
Our panel of ESPN college football reporters submitted their predictions for each playoff round, and there’s no shortage of interesting projections in the opening quartet of contests. Texas is a unanimous pick to take down Clemson, but there’s a clear split decision on Ohio State-Tennessee, with the Buckeyes emerging as a slight favorite. The Irish are also favored against Indiana, while opinion is divided right down the middle on the Penn State-SMU matchup.
Quarterfinal Quandaries
Assuming the higher seeds hold serve in the first round, the quarterfinals would line up as follows:
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State
- No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
- No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Arizona State
- No. 4 Boise State vs. No. 5 Penn State
The quarterfinal round poses some real challenges for the top seeds. Oregon is the consensus pick to get through to the semifinals, but not without a fight from an Ohio State squad that many think can pull off the upset with a brilliant game plan from Ryan Day. Opinions vary on whether Notre Dame’s elite defense can slow down Georgia’s high-powered attack just enough to knock off the defending champs.
Arizona State against Texas has real shootout potential. The Sun Devils might be a year ahead of schedule, but they have the offensive firepower to hang with anyone, even an uber-talented Texas team.
David Hale, ESPN
The Nittany Lions seem to be a trendy pick to upend Boise State on the blue turf and prevent a Mountain West team from crashing the playoff party. But if chaos is what you crave, a Broncos win would set the stage for a wild finish.
Semifinal Showdowns
Projecting out the semifinal matchups based on our staff predictions, we could be treated to an extraordinary pair of games:
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Boise State
- No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas
An all-Pac-12 semifinal would be quite the spectacle, especially if Boise State can pull off another upset and set up a rematch with their lone regular-season loss. On the other side, a Texas-Georgia collision could be an all-timer. Both squads are absolutely loaded with NFL talent and future pros at nearly every position.
If Oregon and Texas advance to the title game, we could witness one of the highest-scoring championship bouts in college football history. Those are two of the most electrifying offenses in the country with future first-round draft picks all over the field.
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN
Title Game Takes
The stage is set for what could be a legendary national championship game. This marks the first time a Pac-12 team has made it to the CFP title match since the system was implemented. Awaiting Oregon is a familiar foe in the Georgia Bulldogs. The Ducks and Dawgs have played several memorable postseason games in recent years, from the Rose Bowl to the Chick-fil-A Kickoff. And these two met in a final-week non-conference clash last year, with Georgia narrowly prevailing in a top-5 showdown in Atlanta.
Now the stakes are raised to an entirely different level. Oregon is chasing its first national title since 1939 and what would be a monumental breakthrough for the Pac-12. Georgia on the other hand is hoping to further cement themselves as the sport’s dominant program and win a second title in 3 years. The legendary Kirby Smart against the wizard Dan Lanning, with all the marbles on the line. It doesn’t get any better than this.
I think Oregon is going to do it. They’ve got a roster built for modern football, they play at a pace no one else can match, and they have the ultimate X-factor in Lanning. To go 15-0 against this schedule and win it all would be legendary.
– Chris Low, ESPN
The collective wisdom of our college football crew is projecting an Oregon victory and a long-awaited national title for the Pac-12. Seven of 11 reporters picked the Ducks to cut down the nets, with the other four forecasting another Georgia coronation. But if we’ve learned anything from years of the 4-team playoff, it’s to expect the unexpected. And with the field now tripled in size, the door is open for more mayhem than ever before.
Buckle up, college football fans. The 12-team era is upon us, and it’s going to be a wild ride. The march to the championship starts now.
