In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, a familiar refrain has emerged from the Republican party: Donald Trump didn’t just win, he won in a historic landslide. His victory, they claim, represents an unprecedented mandate from the American people for his ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda. But is this narrative supported by the facts? A closer examination of the election data reveals that the reality is far less dramatic than the Republican spin.
Overstating the Popular Vote Margin
Much has been made of Trump becoming the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote. However, he did so with a razor-thin margin of just 1.6 percentage points over Kamala Harris, according to analyses by CNN, the Cook Political Report, and the New York Times. This ranks as one of the narrowest popular vote victories in U.S. history, with 49 out of the last 55 winning presidents securing larger margins.
To put this in perspective, consider Lyndon Johnson’s truly historic landslide in 1964, when he defeated Barry Goldwater by a whopping 22.6 points in the popular vote. That is what an undeniable, sweeping mandate from the electorate looks like. Trump’s 2024 win? Not so much.
Electoral College Exaggeration
Turning to the electoral college, Trump’s 307 votes put him over the 270 threshold needed to win. But this is actually fewer than the totals achieved by Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and even Trump himself in his 2016 victory. Out of 60 presidential elections, Trump’s electoral college margin ranks just 44th.
Once again, to see what a true electoral college landslide looks like, we can look to Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, where he amassed a staggering 525 electoral votes. Trump’s 2024 tally pales in comparison to such historic blowouts.
Meager Coattails Effect
When a presidential candidate wins by a huge margin, it often has a “coattails” effect, boosting their party’s performance in down-ballot races. But Trump’s coattails in 2024 were limited at best.
In key Senate battlegrounds, Republicans only flipped one out of five seats. And while they held the House, it was with what CNN analyst Harry Enten called a “record small majority,” aided by gerrymandering rather than any Trump boost.
Trump, the 49.9% president, doesn’t represent the popular will. We must resist this new Republican election lie.
– According to a political analyst
Beware the ‘Mandate’ Myth
Why does this matter? Because when a president and party claim a sweeping mandate, it has historically been used to justify unprecedented expansions of executive power under the guise of enacting the will of the people.
But the numbers don’t lie. There was no landslide. No historic blowout. No overwhelming mandate. Donald Trump won the presidency fair and square, but the idea that the 2024 results somehow represent a profound statement from the electorate is simply false.
As the nation prepares for a second Trump term, it’s crucial that this reality not get lost amid the victory lap rhetoric. Journalists, pundits, and the public must push back against the “landslide” narrative and hold the president and Republicans accountable when they claim any special governing mandate.
Trump may have prevailed in 2024, but he did so with one of the slimmest popular vote margins ever and an electoral victory that ranks in the bottom third historically. That is the objective electoral reality, no matter how loudly his allies insist otherwise. In politics and media, we must strive to ensure facts triumph over politically convenient fiction.
