In a stunning revelation that has sent shockwaves through the international community, a new report has exposed that Azerbaijan, the host nation of the upcoming Cop29 global climate summit, is poised for a massive expansion of its fossil gas production in the coming decade. The findings, which come just weeks before world leaders are set to convene in Baku to discuss urgent action on the climate crisis, have raised serious questions about the country’s commitment to the energy transition and its fitness to oversee the critical negotiations.
Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company Driving Gas Boom
According to the report, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas giant Socar and its international partners are gearing up to increase the nation’s annual gas output from 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) currently to a staggering 49 bcm by 2033. This 32% surge in production flies in the face of the International Energy Agency’s 2021 roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, which clearly stated that no new fossil fuel development should occur if the world is to avert climate catastrophe.
Socar’s recent actions further underscore its steadfast commitment to doubling down on fossil fuels. The company channeled an astonishing 97% of its capital expenditure into oil and gas projects last year, while its nascent renewable energy division, launched suspiciously close to Azerbaijan’s appointment as Cop29 host, remains largely symbolic. This blatant greenwashing does little to inspire confidence in the nation’s ability to steward meaningful climate action.
A Track Record of Insufficient Climate Ambition
Azerbaijan’s troubling trajectory comes as little surprise to close observers. The country’s climate plan was slapped with a “critically insufficient” rating by Climate Action Tracker in September, placing it among a small cadre of nations actually weakening their emissions reduction targets in the face of escalating climate impacts. Rather than heeding the scientific imperative to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, Azerbaijan appears hell-bent on extracting every last drop of oil and gas from its hydrocarbon reserves.
“Given Socar’s pivotal role in Azerbaijan’s economy and its close ties to the country’s political elite, its influence will surely be felt throughout the climate negotiations in Baku. As we prepare for Cop29, we cannot but ask ourselves: did we put the fox in charge of the henhouse?”
– Regine Richter, report lead author, Urgewald
Geopolitics Trumps Climate Imperatives
Socar’s aggressive gas expansion plans are being spun as a response to Europe’s urgent need to wean itself off Russian imports in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. Azerbaijan has already agreed to boost gas exports to the EU by 17% by 2026, further entrenching its role as a key supplier. While the short-term scramble to shore up European energy security is understandable, experts warn that locking in long-term gas infrastructure will jeopardize any hope of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
Human Rights, Corruption Concerns Cast Shadow
Azerbaijan’s bid to preside over the climate talks is further undermined by its abysmal human rights record and pervasive corruption. The European Court of Human Rights has found the country in violation of the European Convention hundreds of times, including cases of torture and inhuman treatment. Public sector graft is rife, with Transparency International ranking Azerbaijan among the worst offenders in its region.
“Where other governments partner with civil society to tackle the climate crisis, the Aliyev regime systematically threatens environmental and human rights defenders. This does not inspire confidence in the upcoming negotiations in Baku.”
– Manana Kochladze, CEE Bankwatch
The World Watches with Bated Breath
As the Cop29 summit rapidly approaches, the international community finds itself at a crossroads. Will the critical talks be subverted by the narrow interests of a petrostate, leading to a catastrophic failure to confront the climate emergency with the urgency it demands? Or will global leaders rise to the moment, charting a course to a livable future that leaves no one behind? With the very fate of our planet hanging in the balance, the stakes could not be higher. The world is watching, and the clock is ticking.
