As tens of thousands of delegates converge on Baku, Azerbaijan for the annual UN climate change conference known as Cop29, a sense of urgency and concern hangs heavy in the air. The summit, dubbed the “finance Cop”, aims to secure commitments from wealthy nations to provide developing countries the funds they need to combat climate change and transition to greener economies. But the long shadow cast by the re-election of Donald Trump, who has dismissed global warming as a “hoax”, looms large over the proceedings.
The Staggering Costs of Climate Change
The past year has been marked by a relentless onslaught of climate-fueled extreme weather events worldwide – from devastating cyclones in Australia to raging wildfires in Brazil to deadly floods in Spain. According to a report commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce, the economic toll of violent weather over the past decade has reached a staggering $2 trillion globally. Experts warn that these costs will only continue to mount as our planet grows hotter.
Developing nations, which have contributed the least to the climate crisis but are bearing the brunt of its impacts, are in desperate need of financial support to adapt and build resilience. The UN estimates that by 2030, these countries will require at least $2.4 trillion annually, excluding China. Around half of this is expected to come from domestic budgets and private investment, leaving a gap of roughly $1 trillion per year for wealthier countries to fill.
The $100 Billion Question
At the 2009 Copenhagen summit, developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion per year in climate finance by 2020 – a goal that was only recently met, over a decade later. The failure to deliver has sown deep distrust among developing nations. As the UK’s new climate envoy Rachel Kyte admitted, the initial $100 billion figure “was plucked out of thin air.” In sharp contrast, this year’s far more ambitious target is backed by rigorous analysis of the true scale of need.
It’s already blazingly obvious that finance is the make-or-break factor in the world’s climate fight.
UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell
While few dispute the $2.4 trillion figure, the willingness of rich countries to step up to the plate remains uncertain. Proposals so far fall far short, with pledges unlikely to exceed a tripling of the $100 billion goal by 2035 – less than a third of what’s required. Much of this funding is expected to flow through institutions like the World Bank and IMF, which will need major reforms to rise to the challenge.
Finding the Funds
To bridge the yawning gap, negotiators are exploring innovative new sources of finance that could unlock billions, such as:
- Taxes on fossil fuels, global shipping, and wealth
- Levies on high-carbon activities like private jet travel
- Redirecting the hundreds of billions spent on harmful subsidies
- Tapping the vast sums held by oil-rich nations
Another avenue is expanding the pool of contributing countries beyond the outdated 1992 definitions. Powerhouses like China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are still classed as “developing”, exempting them from contributing climate funds – despite China now being the world’s top carbon emitter. The US is pushing for reform, but progress remains fraught.
The Trump Effect
Compounding the immense challenges is the tsunami of climate skepticism unleashed by Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The president-elect, who has deep ties to the fossil fuel industry, has already vowed to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and gut crucial environmental protections. Experts fear his hostility could embolden other reluctant nations to slack on climate action, using US intransigence as cover.
A Trump administration is undeniably a disaster for Cop and for global climate action.
Fiona Harvey, Guardian Environment Editor
While US leadership is unlikely to be constructive, advocates stress that the fight against climate change is far bigger than any one nation or leader. The tidal forces of economics are already propelling the world towards a clean energy future – the only question is whether we move fast enough to avert catastrophe. As Cop29 kicks off, all eyes are on the world’s wealthy nations to see if they will finally pay their fair share to confront the defining challenge of our time.
