The race for college football’s ultimate prize is reaching a fever pitch as the playoff field has been whittled down to eight. Ohio State has clawed its way to the top of the latest SP+ rankings, but the Buckeyes are far from alone in the championship hunt. A cluster of contenders, headlined by Oregon and Texas, are nipping at their heels.
Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus
The first round of the College Football Playoff delivered a mix of chalk and chaos. Higher seeds largely held serve, with Ohio State and Penn State notching impressive home victories. But upsets struck as well, most notably Texas falling to Notre Dame. When the dust settled, the updated SP+ ratings crystallized the daunting path to a title:
- Ohio State – 19.8% title odds
- Texas – 19.6% title odds
- Oregon – 17.6% title odds
- Penn State – 14.5% title odds
- Georgia – 14.2% title odds
A mere 5.6 percentage points separate the top five contenders. In the high-stakes world of playoff football, that’s as close to a dead heat as it gets. The slimmest of margins could be the difference between hoisting the trophy and watching someone else celebrate.
Buckeyes on the Prowl
Ohio State’s rise to the top was fueled by a commanding first-round performance. The Buckeyes’ already stellar ratings ticked up even further. But despite their front-runner status, it’s premature to engrave their name on the championship hardware. A loaded top half of the bracket, featuring Oregon and Texas, ensures a perilous path to the title game.
Ohio State is your overall title favorite but has a less than one-in-five chance.
– SP+ rankings creator Bill Connelly
Forecasting the Final Four
As the quarterfinals loom, the SP+ model envisions chalk prevailing. Ohio State and Oregon are projected to wage an epic battle in one semifinal. The winner would be favored against the Texas-Penn State survivor on the other side of the bracket. But as any seasoned observer knows, the beauty of college football lies in its unpredictability.
One thing is for certain—the upcoming clashes will be a test of mettle for the eight teams still standing. Here’s what the numbers say about each quarterfinal matchup:
| Matchup | Favorite (SP+) | Win Probability |
| Ohio State vs Penn State | Ohio State | 66% |
| Oregon vs Texas | Oregon | 55% |
| Georgia vs Notre Dame | Georgia | 61% |
| Boise State vs Arizona State | Boise State | 78% |
The Road Ahead
As the CFP reaches its crescendo, expect the unexpected. The SP+ may hint at the eventual champion, but there’s a reason they play the games. Upsets happen. Legends are forged. The coming weekends will supply the definitive answers to the questions that have captivated fans all season. Which team wants it most? Who is built to win in the crucible of the playoff? The numbers are merely a guide—the truth will be determined on the field.
One of these eight contenders is four wins away from immortality, but the journey promises to be unforgiving. The gauntlet has been laid down. The race to the finish is underway. College football’s brightest lights are about to shine on its biggest stage. Will chalk reign supreme or will chaos crash the party? The answer will be revealed soon enough. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
