As the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan enters its second week, the summit faces growing criticism over the slow pace of negotiations. Halfway through the talks, many are voicing frustration at the lack of significant breakthroughs, with some warning the meeting is on a “knife edge” and at risk of failure.
Rising Tensions Between Developed and Developing Nations
The first week of COP29 has been marred by tensions between wealthy and poorer countries over the contentious issue of climate finance. Developing nations are demanding that rich countries fulfill long-standing pledges to provide funding to help them cope with climate change impacts and transition to cleaner energy.
Critics argue there has been limited progress on this crucial topic. Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think tank, offered a scathing assessment:
“This has been the worst first week of a COP in my 15 years attending these summits. I sense frustration, especially among the developing country groups here at COP. The presidency isn’t giving any hope for how the world will strike the right compromises.”
– Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa
Disputes Over Fossil Fuel Language
Even before the main negotiations began, the conference was bogged down by a row over the summit agenda. A bloc of countries led by Saudi Arabia sought to water down language around the “transition away from fossil fuels” agreed at the previous COP27 in Egypt. The dispute led to long nights of wrangling in the early days.
Poor Turnout from World Leaders
Adding to the subdued atmosphere, many prominent world leaders failed to attend COP29 in person, occupied by domestic political crises and economic turmoil. Notable absentees included US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen.
The slim leader turnout has been interpreted by some as a lack of political will to confront the climate crisis. With the US presidential election looming in 2024, some delegates fear that pushing difficult decisions to COP30 could backfire if a Republican unsupportive of climate action retakes the White House.
Calls for COP Process Reform
Longstanding questions over the effectiveness of the COP process have resurfaced, with a group of prominent figures, including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, ex-UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and former COP26 president Alok Sharma, calling for an overhaul of the negotiation format to break the cycle of stagnation.
Signs of Hope Remain
Despite the gloomy atmosphere, seasoned COP attendees caution that it’s too early to write off the Baku summit. Longtime negotiations-watcher Fiona Harvey argues that while progress has been limited, the talks have not yet veered off the rails as spectacularly as the 2009 Copenhagen summit, which was mired in chaos and acrimony from the outset.
Harvey points out that COP29 has the daunting task of facilitating the first ever detailed negotiations on climate finance, an issue typically considered too thorny for the environment-focused conference:
“We must all remember, too, that COP29 is breaking new ground, so it’s not surprising this is turning out to be tricky. This is the first time there have ever been substantive negotiations on finance at a COP.”
– Fiona Harvey, Guardian Environment Editor
Harvey argues that while finding compromise on the fraught issue of money will be challenging, it’s a nettle that must be grasped. Mobilizing funds to help developing countries pursue green development pathways and adapt to climate impacts should be seen as enlightened self-interest by wealthy nations, she contends, as it will help open up new markets, avoid dangerous planetary overheating and avert a surge in climate refugees.
The Week Ahead
As negotiators start a new week of talks, the pressure is on to start crafting concrete deals, particularly on thorny issues like loss and damage finance for climate-related disasters. While the mood music from the first week has been downbeat, veterans of the UN climate process are holding out hope that a spirit of compromise will emerge in the final days.
Much may depend on the host country Azerbaijan’s ability to navigate the numerous diplomatic minefields and guide parties towards landing zones. The Azerbaijani presidency has already faced criticism for appearing too cozy with fossil fuel interests, so rehabilitation may be needed to win the trust of climate-vulnerable countries.
As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrives in Baku to spur on negotiators, he will be hoping to recapture the spirit of multilateral cooperation that enabled the 2015 Paris Agreement and put the COP process back on track. For the sake of the planet and its inhabitants, success at COP29 has become a matter of existential urgency.
