In a stunning twist of fate, the very industry most responsible for the climate crisis now finds itself uniquely vulnerable to one of its most devastating consequences – rising sea levels. A new study has revealed that many of the world’s biggest oil ports are at severe risk of being overwhelmed by climate-driven sea level rise, threatening to disrupt energy supplies and underscoring the urgent need for a rapid transition to renewable energy.
Ports Under Threat
The analysis, conducted by the non-profit International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), found that 13 major oil ports handling the highest volumes of supertanker traffic are highly vulnerable to damage from just one meter of sea level rise, a milestone that is now seen as unavoidable within the next century and could arrive as soon as 2070 if urgent action isn’t taken to curb emissions and slow the rate of ice sheet collapse.
Among the ports in the danger zone are two critical facilities in Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura and Yanbu – both operated by state oil giant Aramco. These two ports alone handle a staggering 98% of the country’s total oil exports. With Saudi Arabia ranking as the world’s second largest crude oil exporter, any disruption to these ports would send shockwaves through global energy markets.
US Oil Hubs Also at Risk
The United States, currently the world’s top oil producer, is not immune to this threat. The study identified the major oil ports of Houston and Galveston in Texas as facing severe risks from rising seas. Other high-risk ports are located in the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, and the Netherlands – collectively accounting for around 20% of global oil exports in 2023 with a value exceeding $200 billion.
“It’s ironic these oil tanker ports are below 1 metre of sea level rise and need to have their eyes on these potentially higher rates of sea level rise, which themselves come from continued fossil fuel use.”
– Pam Pearson, ICCI director
The Perils of Inaction
While one meter of sea level rise is already locked in, the study warns that even more catastrophic increases of up to three meters cannot be ruled out as soon as the early 22nd century if emissions continue unchecked and trigger runaway ice sheet collapse. At that point, no amount of coastal protection would be sufficient to safeguard most of these crucial ports.
Yet in a troubling display of short-sightedness, the study’s authors note that this profound long-term threat still isn’t being treated with the seriousness it deserves by many governments and corporations, with some even actively impeding efforts to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
“Refusing to turn off the oil taps means keeping the taps on for sea level rise. Unless leaders double down on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the terrible impacts of sea level rise will only increase further – affecting every country with a coastline, including those who continue to obstruct increased decarbonisation efforts.”
– James Kirkham, ICCI chief science adviser
Rising Risks, Sinking Futures
As global temperatures continue to climb, driven overwhelmingly by the burning of oil, coal and gas, rising seas are already unleashing more frequent and severe coastal flooding through higher storm surges and more extensive saltwater intrusion that corrodes infrastructure and degrades freshwater supplies.
With many of the threatened oil ports situated less than a meter above sea level, and some already experiencing impacts, the window for averting catastrophic disruptions is rapidly closing. Building ever higher and more expensive coastal defenses is at best a stopgap measure that will eventually be overtopped as the oceans continue to rise in lock-step with temperatures.
Renewable Rewards
By contrast, transitioning swiftly to renewable energy would not only curb the threat of sea level rise at its source by slashing emissions, but also yield a more secure and resilient energy system not beholden to the vagaries of geology, geopolitics or the increasing risks of depending on threatened coastal infrastructure in a warming world.
“This analysis shows that relying on fossil fuels in a warming world is a path to disaster, not energy security. Countries face a choice: stick with fossil fuels and risk supply disruptions as rising seas flood ports and terminals, or transition to secure, sustainable domestic renewables.”
– Murray Worthy, Zero Carbon Analytics
As the rising tides of the climate crisis lap ever closer to the foundations of the oil-based energy system, the message from this latest study couldn’t be clearer – the only truly sustainable path forward for both the climate and energy security is one that leaves fossil fuels behind and embraces the renewable revolution with the urgency this defining challenge of our time demands. The future of the world’s coastlines, and so much else besides, depends on the choices we make today.
