In the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean, a high-stakes geopolitical chess match is unfolding on islands many people would struggle to find on a map. The players: China and the United States. The prize: influence over a strategically vital region at the heart of maritime trade routes and growing defense concerns. And now, according to a new report, Beijing is making bold moves to gain the upper hand.
China’s Aid “Resurgence” in the Pacific
The Australia-based Lowy Institute has released a study detailing China’s revived push to curry favor with Pacific island nations through a “resurgence” in aid and infrastructure investment. After a pandemic-driven lull, China’s financial commitments to the region have rebounded, signaling a “more competitive, politically targeted model of aid engagement,” according to the report.
Over the past decade, China’s “checkbook diplomacy” in the Pacific has ratcheted up dramatically as its broader geopolitical ambitions have grown. Lavish concessional loans and infrastructure projects – from government buildings to sports stadiums – have become powerful diplomatic currencies for Beijing across the developing world. Now, the Lowy Institute suggests that the pandemic was merely a “temporary blip” in China’s strategy as it pivots to a more calibrated approach.
A Strategic Chess Board
So why are these tiny, far-flung islands suddenly at the center of great power politics? The answer lies in both their geographic position and their diplomatic weight. Sprawled across the world’s largest ocean, Pacific nations form a vast, strategic boundary between Asia and the Americas. Their exclusive economic zones hold crucial shipping lanes, rich fishing grounds, and potentially lucrative seabed resources.
But just as importantly, each island state holds a precious vote at the United Nations and other international bodies. As China’s faced growing tensions with the West, shoring up support among these countries has become a key priority.
Zeroing in on Key Allies
The Lowy Institute report highlights how China has fine-tuned its approach, “targeting a handful of friendly Pacific states” like the Solomon Islands and Kiribati which broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2019. These countries have seen a marked uptick in Chinese funding for schools, roads, and government facilities.
Yet this largesse comes with strings attached. Some worry that China’s “debt-trap diplomacy” could leave economically fragile nations beholden to Beijing. China’s recent security pact with the Solomon Islands has also stoked fears about its military ambitions in the region.
“Beijing has emerged from a pandemic-induced lull with a more competitive, politically targeted model of aid engagement.”
–Lowy Institute Pacific aid report
Competing for Hearts and Minds
China’s moves have put the U.S. and its allies on notice. The report notes that U.S. spending in the Pacific now trails just behind China’s. Countries like Australia, New Zealand and Japan are also stepping up engagement.
But while traditional powers still hold significant sway, there’s a growing recognition that business as usual may no longer suffice. With China not shying away from mixing aid with political pressure, the West is under pressure to find new ways to bolster ties and address island nations’ development needs on their terms.
The Path Forward
As geopolitical tensions simmer, the Pacific finds itself at the heart of a tug-of-war with far-reaching implications. China’s growing sway has sounded alarm bells from Washington to Canberra, spurring pledges to step up engagement.
Yet in the rush to counter Beijing, it’s crucial that Pacific voices remain front and center. Many island leaders have chafed at being treated as pawns on a geopolitical chessboard. Balancing great power rivalries while asserting their own priorities is a complex challenge.
Ultimately, the path forward must be charted in true partnership, with Pacific needs and aspirations as the guiding star. In a region on the front lines of pressing challenges from climate change to sustainable development, there is much scope for constructive engagement from all sides. How this high-stakes contest for influence plays out could chart the course of the “Blue Pacific” for decades to come.
