The stage is set for an epic Super Bowl LIX matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Fresh off another thrilling playoff run, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have opened as 1.5-point favorites over Jalen Hurts’ Eagles at sportsbooks nationwide. With Kansas City chasing an elusive three-peat and Philadelphia hungry to play spoiler, this year’s big game is shaping up to be a clash for the ages.
Chiefs Favored in Early Betting Lines
Despite being underdogs in their last two Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs find themselves as betting favorites this time around. Opening odds at ESPN BET and other major sportsbooks have Kansas City as 1.5-point chalk over Philadelphia. The over/under total for the game is set at 49.5 points.
This marks a change from recent years for the Chiefs, who overcame the odds to win their last two titles:
- 2023 Super Bowl: Chiefs (+3) def. Eagles
- 2024 Super Bowl: Chiefs (+2.5) def. 49ers in OT
Now Kansas City enters as the hunted instead of the hunter. No team has won three straight Super Bowls in the salary cap era, putting the Chiefs on the cusp of history. But Mahomes & Co. have proven they’re up to the challenge, evidenced by four consecutive AFC Championship appearances.
Eagles Embrace Underdog Role
On the NFC side, the Eagles surprised many by cruising past the Washington Commanders to clinch their spot in the big game. Philadelphia opened the season as 11-1 longshots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Now they’re one win away from cashing those tickets.
The underdog label is nothing new for these Eagles, who have won all three games as ‘dogs this season. Their ability to thrive when doubted was on full display in the NFC Championship blowout. So while the oddsmakers may be siding with the Chiefs early on, counting out Philly would be a mistake.
“We feel disrespected being underdogs again, but that just fuels us. No one’s giving us a chance besides ourselves. We’re ready to shock the world.”
Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson
Public Betting Expected to Be Split
With passionate fan bases on both sides, sportsbooks are anticipating relatively even betting action on the Super Bowl. The Chiefs will likely draw a slight majority of public money, especially with the allure of a potential dynasty in the making. But the Eagles are sure to attract their fair share of support from bettors looking to back the underdog.
“We expect more fans to bet on Kansas City, with this possibly being a three-peat and all. But there will definitely be a good amount on Philly too. It should be one of the more balanced Super Bowls in recent memory in terms of betting interest.”
John Murray, Executive Director of Sports Betting at Superbook
Oddsmakers will be keeping a close eye on betting percentages in the coming weeks and may adjust the line if one side starts receiving lopsided action. But for now, the Chiefs -1.5 is the consensus number across the board.
Mahomes vs. Hurts an Intriguing Chess Match
Beyond the odds, this year’s Super Bowl presents a fascinating QB matchup between superstars at different stages of their careers. Mahomes has already cemented his legacy as an all-time great and now has a chance to join the elite club of three-peaters. On the other side, Hurts is just getting started after a breakout season that saw him emerge as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.
| Mahomes | Stat | Hurts |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 24 |
| 4 | Pro Bowls | 1 |
| 2 | Super Bowl wins | 0 |
| 4,825 | 2023 pass yds | 3,729 |
| 41 | 2023 pass TD | 22 |
There’s no denying Mahomes has the edge in experience and accomplishments. But if there’s anyone capable of dethroning the king, it might just be the multi-faceted Hurts. The third-year phenom has proven himself as a dangerous passer and runner. How the Chiefs elect to defend him could tilt the odds.
Historical Trends Offer Insight
Looking at Super Bowl history, the early odds have proven fairly predictive but are far from a sure thing:
- Favorites have won 36 of 58 Super Bowls straight up
- Underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of last 17 Super Bowls
- Super Bowl favorites are 29-27-2 ATS all-time
So while the oddsmakers have made the Chiefs the smart-money pick, Super Bowl betting trends suggest the Eagles are live ‘dogs. At the very least, we should be in for a much closer game than the spread indicates if recent results are any guide.
Early Prediction: Chiefs 31, Eagles 27
In a matchup this close on paper, the side with the best quarterback usually has the advantage. That gives a slight edge to Mahomes and the Chiefs, who haven’t lost a playoff game with him under center since 2020. The superstar has been on an absolute mission this postseason and appears determined to secure his legacy as one of the best to ever do it.
Hurts will keep things close with his dual-threat abilities and the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush will make Mahomes uncomfortable. But in the end, big-game experience wins out. Look for Mahomes to lead a go-ahead touchdown drive late as the Chiefs make history and complete the three-peat, albeit in nail-biting fashion. Take KC -1.5 as your early lean.
