In a season already defined by unpredictability, Rivalry Week delivered perhaps the most chaotic slate of games yet, resulting in a seismic shakeup at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. Several playoff contenders and hopefuls saw their dreams dashed in a series of stunning upsets that will have far-reaching implications as we hurdle towards conference championship weekend.
Buckeyes, Hurricanes Humbled in Road Defeats
Chief among the casualties were Ohio State and Miami, who both entered the weekend with playoff aspirations but departed with devastating losses. The Buckeyes fell to archrival Michigan in The Game, outclassed in the trenches in a 26-17 defeat. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes ventured to the Carrier Dome and were stunned by host Syracuse, unable to slow the Orange attack in a 42-38 shootout.
The losses don’t completely eliminate the Buckeyes or Hurricanes, but they do put their playoff fates largely in the hands of championship week. Ohio State will need to scoreboard watch and hope for favorites to take care of business. Miami has no margin for error in the ACC title game against SMU.
How Far Will Ohio State and Miami Fall?
It’s the question on everyone’s mind as the CFP committee prepares their next rankings release. Ohio State, previously entrenched in the top four, is still a team with an impressive collection of wins, including victories over Penn State and Indiana in recent weeks. But the manner in which they were bested at the line of scrimmage by the Wolverines exposed potential flaws that can’t be ignored.
Many projections have the Buckeyes landing at No. 5 or 6, clinging to a shot at the semifinals if championship week breaks their way. But Michigan made a compelling case that Ohio State isn’t one of the four best, despite the name brand appeal.
As for Miami, the loss to a four-win Syracuse team may be too much to overcome. The Hurricanes have solid wins over Clemson and Tennessee on their résumé, but the committee has shown little tolerance for “bad losses” to unranked foes. A 42-38 shootout defeat when the stakes are this high will be a scarlet letter.
“To come up short like this… It’s going to be a tough pill to swallow,” said Miami coach Mario Cristobal after the crushing loss. “We’ve got to regroup quickly. Our goals are still in front of us, but the margin for error is gone.”
Clemson’s Playoff Hopes Extinguished by South Carolina
While not quite the stunner that was Syracuse over Miami, South Carolina’s 31-27 victory over Clemson sent shockwaves through the CFP landscape. The Tigers were already a playoff long shot after an earlier loss to Miami, but the defeat to their in-state rival slams the door shut on any remaining chance of a semifinals trip.
More than that, the loss seriously damages the ACC’s playoff outlook as a whole. Clemson was the conference’s highest-ranked team and now has two losses. With Miami going down as well, it appears the ACC will be on the outside looking in for the second straight year after consistently placing teams in the playoff in years prior.
Can Alabama Sneak In After Avoiding Iron Bowl Upset?
With several contenders falling by the wayside, one team to watch is Alabama. The Crimson Tide survived a major scare from Auburn in the Iron Bowl, escaping Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 10-9 victory to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
At 10-2, Alabama doesn’t have the most impressive résumé, with a blowout loss to Texas and a nailbiter defeat at the hands of Tennessee. But they do own the head-to-head advantage over fellow SEC West hopeful South Carolina thanks to a 41-24 win in October. If a few dominoes fall their way during championship week, the Tide could ride their pedigree and brand name into the playoff field as a controversial choice over more deserving teams.
The Pac-12’s Precarious Playoff Position
With USC losing a shocker in the Coliseum to Notre Dame, the Pac-12’s playoff aspirations now rest solely on 12-0 Oregon. But it’s far from a comfortable position for the Ducks. They struggled to put away 5-win Wisconsin earlier in November, and the lack of ranked wins on their résumé could leave them vulnerable, even as an unbeaten conference champion.
The Ducks will face Penn State in the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas, and might need a convincing win to lock up a semifinals spot. Even then, they could be jumped by a surging Big 12 champion like Arizona State or a second SEC team if the committee deems other contenders more worthy.
An Expanded Playoff Can’t Come Soon Enough
If anything, this chaotic season has further exposed the flaws and limitations of the four-team playoff format. Even in a 12-team model, arguments and controversy would persist further down the rankings. But this particular season, with its lack of dominant teams and parity at the top, feels primed for a larger playoff field.
While the CFP expansion to 12 is now a foregone conclusion, it can’t come soon enough for many fans exasperated by the weekly rankings drama and the potential for deserving teams to be left out. In a sport where the regular season is so meaningful, it feels at odds with the ethos of college football for fewer than 3% of teams to have a shot at the national title entering the postseason.
New Rankings Prediction and Playoff Picks
Taking the latest results into account, here’s how I expect the CFP rankings to look on Tuesday night:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- SMU
- Boise State
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Ohio State
- Penn State
And if the chalk holds during championship week, with the top teams taking care of business, here are my playoff picks:
- Oregon vs. No. 4 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
- Georgia vs. No. 3 SMU (Peach Bowl)
- Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia (National Championship)
But if this season has taught us anything, expect the unexpected. Don’t be shocked if the next upset happens in a conference title clash, injecting a final dose of chaos into a playoff race that has bucked convention all year long. The only certainty is more uncertainty until the clock hits zero on Dec. 8 and the semifinals field is set in stone.
