Week 16’s marquee Sunday Night Football matchup has massive playoff implications as the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) visit the slumping Dallas Cowboys (6-8). The Bucs have reeled off four straight wins to seize control of the NFC South, while the Cowboys have dropped three of four to fall out of the postseason picture. With so much at stake, what are the key betting trends and player props to know before kickoff?
Buccaneers Thriving as Road Favorites
Since acquiring quarterback Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has been one of the NFL’s best road teams, going 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 away games. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five road contests. The Bucs opened as 4.5-point favorites over the Cowboys, and the line has only moved a half-point to TB -4.
Irving Emerging as Bucs’ Offensive Engine
Rookie running back Bucky Irving has powered Tampa’s recent surge, topping 73 rushing yards in four of his last five games with a sparkling 107.5 yards per game average. Irving draws a plum matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (136.1). His rushing prop sits at a tempting 59.5 yards.
Despite battling through hip and back injuries, Irving has really come on strong down the stretch of his rookie season…he faces a Cowboys run defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL
– ESPN’s Andre Snellings on Irving’s Week 16 outlook
First-Half Fireworks in Bucs Road Games
If you like fast starts, the Bucs are your team. The first-half over is 10-3-1 in Tampa’s 14 games this season, including 5-1 in their last six road tilts. The Bucs are favored by 2.5 points in the first half in Dallas with an over/under of 24 points.
Cowboys Can’t Lasso Home Underdog Role
Dallas has been dreadful as a home underdog, going 0-5 ATS in that spot this season and 1-6 straight up and ATS overall at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are getting 4 points at home, where overs are 4-1 in their last five contests. But buyer beware: Dallas is just 4-11 ATS as a ‘dog over the last two seasons.
- Buccaneers are 13-3 ATS in last 16 road games
- Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as home underdogs this year
- Overs are 5-1 in Bucs’ last 6 road games
- Overs are 4-1 in Cowboys’ last 5 home games
Mayfield, Lamb Lead SNF Prop Plays
Baker Mayfield‘s passing yardage prop of 249.5 yards will attract over money against a generous Dallas secondary allowing 263 pass YPG (4th-most in NFL). Mayfield has topped that total in four of his last six full games.
For Dallas, CeeDee Lamb (79.5 receiving yards) is riding high after his second 100-yard game this season and could smash the over against a Bucs D yielding the 2nd-most pass YPG (277.4). Lamb is -135 to go over 79.5 yards.
CeeDee Lamb caught nine passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers, clearing the 100-yard mark for just the second time this season. He enters Sunday night with a receiving prop of 79.5 yards.
– ESPN on Lamb’s receiving prop
With so much on the line, expect offensive fireworks between these desperate NFC contenders. The Buccaneers are road warriors with a rookie sensation in the backfield, while the Cowboys need a signature home win to resurrect their fading playoff hopes. Grab the popcorn and get those bets in – it should be a Sunday night thriller in Big D.
