The prospect of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching the elusive $100,000 mark seemed like a far-fetched goal just months ago, as the asset spent months in a narrow range below $65,000. However, the promise of swift changes to US regulations has revived the dream once more.
“The 100K BTC predictions are no longer a pipedream as political and institutional stars begin to align,” said traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital in a Telegram broadcast on Tuesday. “Despite seeing net ETF outflows on Thursday and Friday, BTC still looks rather supported and institutional adoption remains robust.”
The bullish sentiment has led prominent Bitcoin advocates MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet to announce fresh BTC purchases on Monday, with the former now holding 1.5% of the asset’s total supply.
Altcoin Season on the Horizon?
QCP anticipates a run to $100,000—nearly 10% higher than the current record of just over $93,000—in the coming months, with those gains flowing into altcoins as a sign of a broad “alt season.”
“BTC dominance is at around 60% now and likely needs to be lower than 58% to signal the start of alt season. We expect pro-crypto policies from the Trump administration and further rate cuts. We wouldn’t be surprised to see alt season in the coming months,” QCP said.
Banks and traditional finance analysts have issued targets as high as $200,000 following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the November elections.
A US bank JPMorgan retail sentiment gauge hit a record high of 4 earlier this week, indicating fresh demand from smaller professional investors. The metric is designed to measure retail investors’ sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, based on activity in the BTC product suite, including spot ETFs.
Cautionary Notes Amidst the Euphoria
However, not all is clear and rosy in the near term, as concerns linger.
“We feel the ‘easy’ part of the rally is done and the next phase will be more confusing with higher vol and potential for drawdowns,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, to CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “BTC dominance remains in a one-way higher trend reminiscent of mega-cap dominance in SPX, and not particularly desirable for this stage of crypto ecosystem.”
“We would look for potential blow-off top in the near term with market sentiment at frothy high levels,” Fan added.
A blow-off top is a chart pattern recognized in technical analysis that indicates a rapid and steep increase in an asset’s price, followed by an equally swift decline.
In the case of a blow-off top, the former record high of around $69,000 could be tested again, with a classic bear market wick potentially reaching down to the lower $60,000s, said CoinDesk senior markets analyst Omkar Godbole.
“The inverse correlation in Bitcoin’s price has slowed since it crossed the $90,000 ATH range. The fact that the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a hurry to slash interest rates going forward has further forced investors to re-evaluate their bets on Bitcoin,” said Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi.
“If the Fed continues to maintain a marginally hawkish stance towards rate, Bitcoin’s attractiveness could diminish,” Sakharov added.
As the crypto market reaches a critical juncture, with Bitcoin on the cusp of uncharted territory and altcoins poised for potential gains, investors must navigate the delicate balance between euphoria and caution. The coming months will reveal whether the $100,000 dream becomes a reality or if the market succumbs to a temporary correction before continuing its upward trajectory.
