As the cryptocurrency markets head into the final stretch of 2024, with Bitcoin notching new all-time highs, the question on many minds is what will drive the next major crypto bull run. According to Evan Fisher, founder and general partner at venture capital firm Portal Ventures, a resurgence in Bitcoin programmability and demand for capital efficiency may be the sleeper narrative to watch in 2025.
The Untapped Potential of Bitcoin Programmability
In a recent interview, Fisher highlighted the overlooked potential of bringing smart contract functionality directly to the Bitcoin blockchain. “People were saying no one wants to be more capital efficient or do anything programmable on Bitcoin,” he noted. But Fisher sees this as a short-sighted view. “Whenever I hear a black and white approach to things, my alarm bell goes off. Obviously that’s not right.”
Fisher’s thesis is simple yet compelling: If even a modest 10% of Bitcoin holders are interested in programmability and capital efficiency, that represents a market larger than Ethereum and many leading alt-coins. In other words, the pent-up demand for these features on the king of crypto could be a sleeping giant.
Arch: Bringing Smart Contracts to Bitcoin
A key project that Fisher and Portal Ventures are excited about in this space is Arch, which aims to bring native smart contract capabilities directly to the Bitcoin blockchain. “We looked at that and we’re like, wow, there is pent-up demand for using Bitcoin that has never really been met,” he explained. “This is one of the few spaces where there’s actually so much demand for these products, but the demand hasn’t been met.”
While many in the crypto world focus on building products in search of demand, Fisher sees the Bitcoin programmability space as a rare opportunity where the reverse is true: the demand is there, but the right products are only now starting to emerge to satisfy it.
The Coming Bitcoin Renaissance
Zooming out, Fisher predicts that this untapped demand combined with maturing solutions could lead to a “Bitcoin renaissance” of sorts over the coming years. As he put it:
I think that Bitcoin programmability—like this Bitcoin renaissance—will come back in a very meaningful and scalable way this cycle.
– Evan Fisher, Founder & General Partner, Portal Ventures
It’s a bold prediction, considering much of the crypto market’s focus in recent years has been on innovative new blockchains and “Ethereum killers”. But Fisher and Portal Ventures are putting their money where their mouth is, having led an early investment round in Arch in 2023 based on this thesis.
Portal’s Macro Crypto Market Outlook
Beyond Bitcoin programmability, Fisher also shared some insights into Portal’s overall approach to navigating crypto market cycles. Having just raised a sizable $75 million venture fund focused on early-stage crypto plays, Portal tries to gain an edge by:
- Leading investment rounds at the earliest stages, often at “first check” when projects are just at the idea stage before a whitepaper or product.
- Taking a thematic and concentrated approach—staking a single promising startup in each key market area they have a thesis around.
- Serving as an active thought partner to founders to help shape projects based on their domain expertise and research.
While many venture investors may chase hot trends or pivot strategy to match market sentiment, Fisher emphasized the importance of staying focused and avoiding getting caught up in market mania.
Throughout all capital markets in history, it eventually turns into this game of euphoria and people end up making irrational decisions . . . By being pretty low key, just really at home doing the work, not being super public, we’ve found that we can avoid a lot of that.
– Evan Fisher, Founder & General Partner, Portal Ventures
Whether Portal’s bets on a Bitcoin programmability renaissance or their overall macro approach prove prescient remains to be seen. But it’s clear they aren’t afraid to go against the grain based on their own convictions and research—a refreshing mindset as the crypto markets mature and grow more institutionalized. One thing is certain: as Bitcoin soars to new heights and whispers of a “Bitcoin renaissance” grow louder, Portal Ventures and Evan Fisher will be a key story to watch in 2025.
