In a high-stakes gambit, Bitcoin bulls are betting big that the king of cryptocurrencies will surge to stunning new heights in the wake of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 45th U.S. President. A flurry of activity on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit reveals a growing appetite for Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $100,000 and beyond, signaling a rising tide of exuberance among traders eyeing the dawn of a new political era.
Betting the Farm on Trump’s Bitcoin Boost
In a move that has sent shockwaves through the cryptosphere, an undaunted trader on Deribit recently splashed out a cool $6 million to scoop up a trove of $100,000 strike Bitcoin call options set to expire on March 28, 2025. The audacious bet, brought to light by data wizards at Amberdata, is a resounding vote of confidence that Bitcoin will not only reclaim its former glory but shatter its previous record high in the months following Trump’s ascent to the Oval Office.
And the bullish fever doesn’t stop there. Deribit’s order books reveal a swelling throng of traders piling into the $120,000 call option, making it the undisputed king of the options realm with a staggering notional open interest of $1.52 billion. This torrent of call buying is a clarion call that the market is bracing for a seismic Bitcoin breakout that could propel prices into uncharted territory.
The Trump Effect: Crypto’s “Prime Time”
So what’s fueling this surge of optimism? According to Greg Magadini, derivatives maestro at Amberdata, Trump’s inauguration and the days that follow will be a “prime time” for Bitcoin bulls, thanks to the potential for a cavalcade of crypto-friendly announcements and policies that could light a fire under Bitcoin’s price.
The inauguration and right after will be a prime time for bullish announcements and policies that could be bullish catalysts for bitcoin to move higher.
Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata
This sentiment is echoed by the sages at CF Benchmarks, a regulated crypto index provider, who suggest that a revamped SEC under pro-crypto leadership could herald a new era of reduced enforcement risk and turbocharged innovation. Such a seismic shift, coupled with streamlined compliance rules, could be just the shot in the arm needed to supercharge investor confidence and send Bitcoin soaring.
Regulatory Headwinds and Short-Term Turbulence
But amidst the euphoria, CF Benchmarks sounds a note of caution, warning that potential delays in policy implementation or unexpected shifts in direction could throw a wrench in the works, tempering market exuberance and triggering bouts of short-term volatility.
We believe that an industry framework will come, however, implementation delays or policy shifts may temper market optimism, creating short-term volatility.
CF Benchmarks Annual Report
Indeed, the road to crypto regulatory nirvana is seldom smooth, and the market’s sky-high expectations for the Trump era could be tempered by the realities of the glacial pace of policy change. Nevertheless, the overwhelming bullish sentiment that has gripped the Bitcoin options market suggests that, for now at least, the bulls are in the driver’s seat.
The Bottom Line: All Eyes on the Aftermath
As the crypto world holds its breath in anticipation of Trump’s inauguration, one thing is crystal clear: the coming weeks and months will be a defining moment for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space. With expectations running high and the stakes never greater, all eyes will be glued to the aftermath of January 20th, as the market eagerly awaits the first inklings of the Trump administration’s stance on crypto.
Will a flood of bullish policy announcements and regulatory relief send Bitcoin rocketing past $100K and beyond? Or will the realities of Washington gridlock and bureaucratic foot-dragging pour cold water on the market’s lofty ambitions? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the crypto rollercoaster is about to kick into high gear, and the ride promises to be wilder than ever.
