As the dust settles from a seismic US election that saw Donald Trump clinch an improbable victory, a sense of unease is gripping Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose war-torn nation relies heavily on American largesse to fend off Russia’s invasion, was quick to extend an olive branch to the president-elect. In a congratulatory message tinged with diplomatic finesse, Zelenskyy expressed hope that Trump’s “peace through strength” doctrine could expedite a “just peace” for his beleaguered homeland.
Yet behind closed doors, the mood in Kyiv is decidedly more somber. With Republicans poised to claim full control of Congress and a White House that has been openly skeptical of foreign entanglements, Ukraine’s future as a recipient of vital American aid hangs in the balance. Cognizant of this stark reality, the outgoing Biden administration is reportedly scrambling to push through a massive eleventh-hour infusion of military assistance before the transfer of power.
A Multibillion-Dollar Lifeline
According to senior officials speaking on condition of anonymity, President Biden aims to exploit the twilight of his term to shore up Ukraine’s defenses. The White House’s goal, insiders say, is to “put Ukraine in the strongest position possible” by tapping into a well of previously authorized funding. On the table is a staggering sum of roughly $9 billion, cobbled together from:
- $4.3 billion remaining from an April aid package
- $2.8 billion approved in prior spending measures
- $2 billion earmarked for new weapons purchases
This eleventh-hour surge would mark a substantial boost to Ukraine’s war chest. It also underscores the urgency of Biden’s mission to bolster a key ally before his successor can upend the chessboard. While Trump has yet to unveil a detailed Ukraine policy, his “America First” rhetoric and record of coziness with Moscow have raised alarm bells from Kyiv to Brussels.
Zelenskyy’s Tightrope Act
For his part, President Zelenskyy is engaging in a precarious balancing act. In a statement released after an “excellent” phone call with Trump, he simultaneously extended an olive branch and subtly reminded Washington of its vital role, noting that “strong and unwavering US leadership is vital” to achieving peace. It’s a message that aims to flatter the incoming president’s ego while also underscoring Ukraine’s existential reliance on American support.
I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.
– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
An Uncertain Future
Yet for all of Zelenskyy’s rhetorical acrobatics, the specter of dwindling American support looms large. As Ukraine grapples with battlefield setbacks and a foe emboldened by shifting winds in Washington, the prospect of a Republican-controlled government slamming the brakes on aid is far from hypothetical.
That’s going to be a problem when you go forward with additional funding for Ukraine, which at some point is going to be necessary.
– Scott Anderson, Brookings Institution
All the while, the chess pieces continue to move on the front lines. Russian forces have reportedly captured several villages in the hotly contested Donetsk region, underscoring the fluidity of a conflict that has stretched well past the 1,000-day mark. As the Biden administration races against the clock to bolster Ukraine’s hand, the question remains: will it be enough to blunt Russia’s offensive and convince a skeptical Republican leadership that this is a fight worth sustaining? The answer could well determine Ukraine’s fate — and with it, the future contours of Europe itself.
