As the clock ticks down on its tenure, the Biden administration is trumpeting the freshly inked ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as a landmark diplomatic achievement. Speaking from the White House Rose Garden, President Joe Biden heralded the deal as “historic,” asserting that it demonstrates the enduring possibility of peace. However, even as the president took his victory lap, questions swirled about the agreement’s long-term viability, especially with the impending transition to a new U.S. administration with a starkly different worldview.
A Shaky Foundation for Peace
The 60-day ceasefire, hammered out under immense pressure in the waning days of Biden’s term, is a intricate arrangement resting on a web of uncertainties. Israel retains the right to strike targets in Lebanon it deems a direct threat. The durability of the deal relies heavily on the restraint of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the capacity of the Lebanese army to maintain control in Hezbollah strongholds, and the militant group’s ability to rearm.
An Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire would be a significant and welcome success, but it’s a transaction not a transformation. We’d all be well advised to withhold judgment until we’re well into the 60-day clock.
Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Most crucially, the accord’s fate may hinge on the looming handover of power in Washington. The incoming Trump administration’s “America First” ethos marks a sharp departure from Biden’s internationalist approach. As one analyst put it, “Irony of ironies it might well fall apart on Trump’s watch.”
Claiming Credit, Sowing Doubt
The very fact that a deal was reached is, in itself, a noteworthy accomplishment for the lame-duck Biden team. For months, administration negotiators had dangled the prospect of a ceasefire, only to see those hopes repeatedly dashed. The final push reportedly came after a hush-hush huddle between a top Israeli official and Donald Trump himself at Mar-a-Lago, leading to a flurry of last-minute wrangling with the outgoing administration.
Now, in a somewhat surreal twist, the incoming Trump team is claiming the agreement as its own doing, with the president-elect’s soon-to-be national security adviser crowing that “everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump.” Still, a senior Biden official, speaking on background, articulated a sense of cautious optimism, citing a potential “window of opportunity” to pivot from the Hezbollah deal to an even more elusive aim – a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Lebanese Linchpin
Much rides on the ability of the Lebanese army to preserve a fragile equilibrium in the country’s volatile south, with the U.S. poised to play an expansive role in equipping and diplomatically bolstering the force – a safeguard mechanism that crumbled after an earlier war in 2006. Should those troops prove unable to impede Hezbollah’s rearmament or curb its patronage pipeline from Iran, Israel may revert to a more proactive posture.
After October 7, Israel is far less trusting of deterrence and more of a believer in keeping its enemies weak. It may view limited strikes as a way of sending a message, and this may work – but such strikes always come with a risk of escalation and renewed war.
Daniel Byman, Center for Strategic and International Studies
As the region holds its breath, the days ahead will be a white-knuckle test of both diplomatic craftsmanship and on-the-ground restraint. The Biden administration has staked its waning credibility on the bet that this ceasefire will stick. The world now waits to see if that gamble pays off – or if the oldest of Middle East refrains, the cycle of shattered truces, will echo anew.
