As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, savvy bettors are always on the hunt for prop bets that offer value. While the mainstream markets focus on sides and totals, there’s often untapped potential in the props – especially when you have the right quantitative approach. In this article, we’ll highlight some of the under-the-radar prop bets our models have identified as worth targeting this week.
The Power of Props
Why focus on prop bets? Two key reasons:
- Less efficient markets compared to sides and totals
- Ability to leverage deep statistical models for player projections
The prop betting markets simply don’t attract the same volume and sharp action as the standard bets. This means there are more inefficiencies to exploit for those willing to put in the work.
Prop betting is like hunting for truffles. The prizes are there, but it takes expertise and effort to sniff them out.
Adam Chernoff, The Action Network
Anytime Touchdown Targets
Anytime touchdown scorer props offer some of the juiciest opportunities in NFL betting. Here are two of our model’s top plays for Week 16:
- Nico Collins (HOU) at +145 odds
- Puka Nacua (LAR) at -105 odds
Collins has had a sneaky-good season in Houston, ranking top-5 in the NFL in target share and yards per route run. With absurd 30% of targets coming his way, Collins offers major touchdown upside every week.
Despite being a rookie, Nacua has earned Matthew Stafford’s trust as a capable playmaker in this Rams offense. He has the speed to get loose for big gains, and the TD equity will continue to rise.
Defensive Sack Unders
On the defensive side of the ball, our models see value on the under for two pass-rushers in particular:
- Tershawn Wharton (KC) under 0.5 sacks at -200
- Poona Ford (LAC) under 0.5 sacks at -450
Despite Wharton’s strong season, his playing time has dipped in recent weeks with the return of Charles Omenihu. At -307 true odds, we’ll gladly lay the -200 price.
Ford is enjoying a breakout year, but his historical sack production is still quite low. Against the elusive Bo Nix and a Seahawks line that’s allowed the league’s fourth-lowest sack rate, the under is a strong bet even at the steep -450 odds.
Punting on Points
Expanding our search beyond player props, one game total stands out as a value bet:
- DET/CHI under 45.5 points at +120 odds
The huge mismatch between Jared Goff and the electric Lions offense versus Caleb Williams and the scuffling Bears attack sets up well for an under. The Bears will struggle to keep pace, and Detroit’s defense is better than the raw numbers suggest. Our models make this under a +102 play, so +120 offers solid value.
Prop Betting Principles
Before placing your prop bets for Week 16, keep these key tenets in mind:
- Lean on quantitative models and projections to identify value
- Focus on less efficient markets like props and alternate lines
- Consider context and matchups beyond just a player’s base rates
- Capitalize on recency bias – public perception often lags reality
Prop betting requires a different skill set than sides and totals. It’s all about having a feel for the ebb and flow of a player’s usage and matchups. The numbers are the foundation, but the context is the key.
Rufus Peabody, Massey-Peabody Analytics
Armed with these principles and the plays outlined above, you’re well-positioned to beat the prop betting markets in Week 16. Remember, it’s a long season – stay disciplined, trust the process, and the profits will follow. Good luck!
