Turkey, stuffing, and…prop bets? You bet! This Thanksgiving, football fans are in for a treat with three tantalizingly competitive NFL matchups on tap. As the playoff race heats up, our gridiron gurus dive deep to deliver the choicest betting morsels for your holiday enjoyment. Grab a plate, settle in, and feast your eyes on our expert analysis, picks, and props for Bears-Lions, Giants-Cowboys, and Dolphins-Packers. ‘Tis the season to be jolly…and very judicious with your wagers!
Bears at Lions (-9.5, 48.5)
The surging Lions host their division rival Bears in the early appetizer. Detroit’s offense has been on fire, ranking 2nd in explosive pass rate and 7th in explosive run rate. Even with some key injuries, the Lions’ attack figures to feast on a faltering Chicago defense that has surrendered its two worst yardage yields the past two weeks.
Injuries are testing the Lions’ depth, but some regression is inevitable for their heroic defense. The shakiness was evident against Indy, even if the scoreboard didn’t show it.
– Ben Solak
The Bears’ ability to keep pace may hinge on their mental state after back-to-back gut-wrenching losses. Will they arrive deflated or inspired to play spoiler? The first quarter should tell the tale. Solak leans towards a high-scoring affair, making the over 48.5 (-110) the smart play. Other intriguing prop bets:
- WR Rome Odunze to score 1+ TD (+325)
- WR Jameson Williams longest reception OVER 23.5 yds (-120)
Giants at Cowboys (-3.5, 37.5)
The day’s main course features a classic NFC East clash in Big D. Much hinges on the health of Giants QB Tommy DeVito, who is questionable with a forearm injury. If DeVito can’t go, the line may adjust towards the ‘Boys. Either way, points should be at a premium.
Everything about this game screams under, and the total is low as such. But I would not go lower than 37. If Lock starts for the G-Men, I’d likely pass on the total altogether.
– Ben Solak
Some prop bet nuggets to chew on from Seth Walder’s model:
- WR Malik Nabers 90+ rec yds (+210)
- DT Osa Odighizuwa UNDER 0.5 sacks (-135)
- Giants NT Dexter Lawrence II UNDER 0.5 sacks (-170)
Dolphins at Packers (-3.5, 47.5)
In the nightcap, the red-hot Fins visit the chilly confines of Lambeau to battle the hard-to-figure Pack. Sub-freezing temps could be an X-factor, as Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has struggled mightily (0-4) in his career in kickoff temps below 40°F. The revamped Dolphins offense is better equipped to handle the elements, but it’s still a concern.
Green Bay’s gaudy record belies some troubling metrics, especially on defense. Miami coach Mike McDaniel’s squad has reeled off three straight wins, albeit against mediocre competition. In a toss-up, Solak sides with the more trustworthy team of late, taking the Dolphins +3.5.
One Packers prop to consider from the model: LB Quay Walker UNDER 8.5 tackles + assists (-130).
And there you have it, folks! A heaping helping of football analysis and betting advice to supplement your pumpkin pie. Enjoy the games, be grateful, and may the wagers be ever in your favor. Happy Thanksgiving!
