More American soccer players than ever are starring for elite European clubs, raising expectations for the U.S. men’s national team (USMNT). However, a deep dive into the data reveals that the USMNT’s results haven’t dramatically improved in the modern era, despite the emergence of this “Golden Generation.” Let’s analyze what the numbers say about the USMNT’s true progress on the global stage.
Stuck in the Middle
Since the 1994 World Cup, the USMNT’s average Elo rating, which assesses a team’s quality based on results, has hovered between 1,700 and 1,900. The current team’s 1,759 rating puts them 34th in the world, well below the top-tier nations consistently ranked in the top 10 like Spain (2,178) and the Netherlands (1,939). The USMNT briefly cracked the top 10 in the Elo ratings in 2005 and 2009 but couldn’t sustain that elite level.
The 2002 Mirage
The USMNT’s run to the 2002 World Cup quarterfinals is often cited as a high-water mark, but the data paints a more nuanced picture. That tournament featured an impressive win over Portugal but also a lopsided loss to Poland. In fact, the USMNT’s overall performance in 2002, as measured by Elo, was worse than in 2022, when they earned credible draws against England and Wales.
The European Effect
The spike in Americans playing in the Champions League seems like it should translate to a stronger USMNT. However, this trend isn’t unique to the U.S. In 2002, only 17% of World Cup players for Japan played in Europe. By 2022, that number skyrocketed to 73%. Similarly, Belgium went from just 26% of its 2002 roster playing in a top-five European league to a whopping 81% in 2022.
To improve your standing in the global pecking order, it’s not just that you have to [improve]. You have to do all of those things, and you have to do them better than everyone else.
In other words, the USMNT isn’t the only country upgrading its talent pool, making it tougher to move up the competitive ladder. While the current core is undoubtedly the most talented in U.S. history, other nations are also seeing dramatic improvements, raising the bar for everyone.
Marginal Gains, Not Quantum Leaps
The data does show the modern USMNT making modest strides in one key area: consistency. Three of the team’s 20 worst losses since 1994 have come in the last cycle, but two were in matches with little at stake. There’s also a conspicuous lack of signature wins, but the team is generally avoiding the puzzling losses to minnows that cropped up in the past.
This points to a USMNT that has a higher floor than past iterations but not necessarily a higher ceiling. Stars like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie ensure the U.S. will be competitive, but the transcendent, globally elite results fans crave remain elusive. Incremental progress appears to be happening under the surface, even if it’s not translating to headline-grabbing triumphs.
The Verdict
By the numbers, this “Golden Generation” has not revolutionized the USMNT or rocketed it into the global elite. However, a granular look at the data does reveal some signs of progress:
- A higher concentration of elite club talent than ever
- Fewer inexplicable stumbles against inferior opponents
- An overall level of play and depth better than any past U.S. team
The USMNT is undoubtedly getting better; the world is just getting better faster. For a soccer-mad country like the U.S. with immense resources, that’s a tough reality to accept. This American soccer generation may not be golden in an absolute sense, but it still represents an important step forward in the USMNT’s quest to reach the sport’s summit and stay there.
