As the devastating conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza inches towards a tenuous ceasefire, regional powers are sounding the alarm over the urgent need for a stable governing authority to take the reins of the battered Palestinian enclave’s reconstruction efforts. Arab diplomats, backed by their European counterparts, are imploring Israel and the incoming US administration under President-elect Donald Trump to empower the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA) to work hand-in-hand with the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (Unrwa) in overseeing Gaza’s post-war recovery — or risk a dangerous political vacuum that could reignite hostilities.
Fears of Instability Amid Planned Aid Surge
The calls come against the backdrop of Israeli plans to terminate all cooperation with Unrwa by January 30th, throwing into question how the anticipated influx of humanitarian assistance can be effectively distributed in Gaza once the guns fall silent, especially given the territory’s current state of lawlessness. Arab states argue that no other organization possesses the infrastructure and on-the-ground presence of Unrwa when it comes to coordinating the provision of desperately needed food, medical supplies and building materials to Gaza’s shell-shocked population.
Unrwa is not replaceable.
Philippe Lazzarini, Unrwa Commissioner-General
Staving Off a Political Vacuum
The primary aim, diplomats stress, is to prevent Gaza from once again becoming a breeding ground for extremism amid the inevitable jockeying for control that will ensue as the dust settles. The fear is that without the PA at the helm, working under the auspices of Unrwa, Hamas will exploit the chaos to reestablish its foothold. The Islamist group’s popularity may have taken a hit from the war’s devastation, but in the absence of a credible governing alternative, it could swiftly regain its footing.
Any attempt to consolidate the separation between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, or to create transitional entities, will be rejected.
Mohammad Mustafa, Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority
The Blinken Plan: A Pathway Forward?
In his final policy speech as US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken appeared to recognize the urgency of putting in place a functional governing structure for Gaza, albeit one still lacking in crucial details. His proposal centers on a UN-mandated interim administration comprised of representatives from the PA in Gaza to oversee key services and reconstruction efforts, with the ultimate goal of handing full control to a reformed PA as soon as feasible.
Notably, Blinken also floated the idea of an “interim security mission” involving “partner nation security forces” to work alongside “vetted Palestinian personnel” in securing an environment conducive to recovery efforts and stemming weapons smuggling. Arab diplomats view this as a tacit acknowledgment that without addressing Gaza’s security situation in tandem with its humanitarian needs, any progress will be fleeting.
Obstacles to Implementation
The path from blueprint to reality, however, is strewn with political hurdles. The PA leadership under President Mahmoud Abbas has already rejected any proposal smacking of “transitional entities” that fall short of a fully empowered, reformed Palestinian government presiding over both Gaza and the West Bank. Yet such an outcome appears remote, given the opposition within Israel’s Knesset to the notion of Palestinian statehood — a key precondition, in the PA’s eyes, for its participation in a multinational security force for Gaza.
Israel’s hardline stance towards Unrwa presents another stumbling block. Emboldened by the prospect of a Trump administration sympathetic to its view of the UN agency as “irredeemably flawed” and “advocating for Palestinian refugees,” the Israeli government seems determined to follow through on its vow to completely sever ties with Unrwa. This has raised alarm bells among Arab states and aid organizations, who see no viable alternative for distributing the massive quantities of aid Gaza requires as it embarks on the long road to reconstruction.
The Stakes for Gaza’s Future
As the contours of the ceasefire agreement take shape, the tug-of-war over who will take the lead in piecing Gaza back together carries far-reaching implications for the Palestinians’ future. Will the international community heed the warnings of Arab states and aid agencies, and throw its weight behind a PA-Unrwa partnership as the surest path to a sustainable recovery? Or will political expediency and the aversion to ruffling Israeli and American feathers win out, sowing the seeds for a power struggle that risks squandering Gaza’s opportunity to emerge from the ashes? As the countdown to the post-war era begins, the stakes for Gaza — and the prospects for lasting calm — could not be higher.
