The Week 7 NFL London series continues with an intriguing matchup between the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium. Both teams enter with identical 1-5 records, desperate to get their seasons back on track. For bettors and fantasy football enthusiasts, this international clash presents some enticing opportunities to cash in.
Drake Maye’s Moment to Shine
Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye impressed in his first NFL start last week, despite New England falling to the Texans 41-21. The former North Carolina standout threw for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns, showcasing the talent that made him a 1st round draft pick. Maye now gets an even juicier matchup against a dreadful Jaguars defense.
Jacksonville currently ranks dead last in the NFL in defensive EPA and is hemorrhaging 31.5 points per game. Just last Sunday in London, Bears QB Caleb Williams torched the Jags for 4 touchdown passes. Look for Maye to have similar success attacking downfield with speedy wideouts Gabe Davis and Demario Douglas. The Pats’ passing game props are definitely in play.
Trevor Lawrence’s New Weapon
On the flip side, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence seems to have found a new go-to target in rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The LSU product has tallied 90+ yards in 3 straight games and just missed a touchdown last week. At 6’4″ with 4.4 speed, Thomas is a coverage nightmare the Patriots secondary will have to account for.
Brian Thomas Jr. is quickly developing into a number one caliber weapon for Trevor Lawrence. His ability to consistently separate and make contested catches has been very impressive for a rookie. The Jags may have found a true gem in the 5th round.
An AFC scout told ESPN
If New England shifts extra attention Thomas’ way, that could open up the middle of the field for explosive plays to TE Evan Engram and slot receiver Christian Kirk. In a projected high-scoring affair, the Over on the Jaguars team total of 23.5 points looks like a smart bet.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Jaguars enter as 6-point home favorites, which could prove to be an inflated line given their defensive woes. Doug Pederson’s squad is just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots showed glimpses of offense with Drake Maye and should be able to keep this one close.
- Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
- Jaguars are 0-3 ATS as favorites in 2024
- The Under is 4-1 in London games over the last 2 seasons
Our experts ultimately like the Patriots catching nearly a touchdown in what sets up as a back-and-forth affair. New England’s defense is still stout enough to get some key stops, while the Maye-led offense should thrive against the generous Jags D. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline at +210 for a Patriots outright upset.
The Pick: Patriots +6 (-115)
I think the Patriots are a live underdog to win this game outright, but I’ll gladly take the points thinking Maye will have a lot of success against this putrid Jags defense.
ESPN betting analyst Tyler Fulghum
Other Week 7 Betting Trends & Player Props
- Drake Maye passing yards: Over 224.5 (-140)
- Trevor Lawrence passing TDs: Over 1.5 (Even)
- Brian Thomas Jr receiving yards: Over 59.5 (+105)
- Evan Engram receiving yards: Over 59.5 (-105)
- Christian Kirk receiving yards: Over 44.5 (-115)
The Patriots vs Jaguars kicks off at 9:30am ET live from London and is sure to draw heavy betting action. Be sure to shop around for the best odds using our NFL odds comparison tool and as always, bet responsibly. Come back weekly for more expert NFL betting analysis, free picks, and fantasy football advice. Good luck!
