The 2024 NFL season has reached its midpoint, and the playoff picture is beginning to crystallize. But looks can be deceiving in this wildly unpredictable league. A team’s current spot in the standings doesn’t always tell the full story of its postseason prospects. Injuries, schedule strength, and crucial tiebreakers are just a few of the factors that can dramatically alter a squad’s trajectory.
To cut through the noise and paint a clearer picture of the NFL playoff landscape, we’ve broken all 32 teams down into eight distinct tiers. Drawing on advanced analytics like ESPN’s Football Power Index, betting market insights, and old-fashioned gut instinct, these tiers provide a more nuanced view of each team’s odds of making noise in January (and possibly February).
Tier 1: The Cream of the Crop
These teams aren’t just playoff locks – they’re bona fide Super Bowl favorites. With elite talent on both sides of the ball and a track record of success, it would be stunning if any of these squads missed out on postseason action.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
The two-time reigning champs haven’t been as dominant offensively this season, but does it really matter? This Patrick Mahomes-led juggernaut remains the team to beat until proven otherwise. With the third-easiest remaining schedule, the Chiefs are a virtual lock for the AFC’s top seed.
Buffalo Bills (8-2)
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level behind a stout offensive line, and emerging star Khalil Shakir has solidified the receiving corps. This could finally be the year the Bills get over the hump and bring a Lombardi Trophy back to Buffalo.
Detroit Lions (7-1)
Yes, star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson is likely out for the year. But this deep, talented roster – led by one of the NFL’s sharpest coaching staffs – still profiles as the NFC’s most complete team. Anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would be a disappointment in the Motor City.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Is this the best version of Lamar Jackson we’ve ever seen? The 2019 unanimous MVP is on pace for career highs in virtually every passing category. If Baltimore’s 29th-ranked pass defense can tighten up down the stretch, watch out.
Tier 2: Virtually Assured a Seat at the Table
Barring a catastrophic second-half collapse, these teams are as close to playoff locks as it gets. They might not be betting favorites to win it all, but it would be foolish to count them out entirely.
Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
“The Eagles are just too talented not to make the playoffs. Elite playmakers all over the roster.”
– NFC scout
Houston Texans (6-3)
Don’t let their middling advanced metrics fool you – any team with a two-game lead in the AFC South is sitting pretty. If sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud and this immensely talented supporting cast can find another gear, Houston’s ceiling is sky-high.
Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
The Vikes’ stunning 5-0 start all but punched their postseason ticket in a diluted NFC. But their 14th-ranked offense and a defense reliant on unsustainable schematic wizardry raise questions about their ability to make real noise once they get there.
Washington Commanders (7-3)
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is an MVP candidate in my book. He’s spearheading the NFL’s second-most efficient offense behind a surprisingly stout offensive line. And don’t forget about the Commanders’ trade deadline heist for All-Pro corner Marshon Lattimore. This team is for real.
Tier 3: Teetering on the Brink
One or two of these fringe contenders will likely sneak into the playoffs. The rest will spend January wondering what might have been. With seven weeks to play, it’s still too early to write them off entirely. But the margin for error is razor-thin.
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): Joe Burrow is enjoying a career year, and Trey Hendrickson is a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner. That’s an awfully compelling foundation to build a playoff run around – if the Bengals can overcome their lackluster record and leaky defense.
- Denver Broncos (5-5): Rookie sensation Bo Nix has the Mile High City dreaming of an improbable postseason bid. But this team’s elite defense will have to keep carrying a Herculean load.
- Los Angeles Rams (4-4): If LA’s cavalry of returning injured stars – namely Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and a pair of Pro Bowl guards – can provide a second-half spark, a wild card berth isn’t out of the question.
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds (FPI) |
| Bengals | 4-6 | 27% |
| Broncos | 5-5 | 31% |
| Rams | 4-4 | 38% |
Now, could one of these teams improbably catch fire down the stretch and make the leap from long shot to legitimate title threat? Absolutely. Crazier things have happened. Just last year, the 4-6 Raiders rallied to win seven of their last nine and steal a wild card spot.
But the cold, hard reality is that most of these teetering contenders will see their flickering postseason hopes extinguished in the coming weeks. Such is life in the NFL, where the line between playoff euphoria and bitter disappointment has never been finer.
