In a pointed display of European solidarity mere days after the re-election of Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to join French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris for the nation’s solemn Armistice Day service. This landmark visit marks the first time a UK leader has attended France’s revered commemoration event since Winston Churchill in 1944, underlining the urgency felt by the two NATO powers to fortify their ties amid the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Strengthening the Franco-British Alliance
As Starmer and Macron pay tribute to the fallen soldiers of World War I, their meeting holds a deeper symbolism—a resolute commitment to the enduring bond between France and the United Kingdom. No. 10 Downing Street emphasized that the talks between the leaders would “reflect on the close bonds between the two countries, many forged and cemented by the sacrifice of British and French soldiers on the frontline.”
The Élysée Palace echoed this sentiment, expressing hope that Starmer’s presence at the Arc de Triomphe ceremony would stand as a significant European moment, reaffirming the strength and unity of two leading NATO allies. In the wake of Trump’s divisive victory, such a display of Franco-British solidarity is seen as crucial to assuaging fears about the future of the transatlantic alliance.
Confronting the Trump Effect
While Trump’s re-election was not officially on the agenda for the leaders’ discussions, its looming impact on global affairs is undeniable. Insiders suggest that Starmer and Macron will inevitably broach the subject, particularly in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the precarious situation in Gaza. The UK prime minister has repeatedly pledged “ironclad” support for Ukraine, regardless of the US approach under a second Trump administration.
However, concerns abound over Trump’s stance on NATO and his penchant for pressuring allies to increase their defense spending. During his campaign, the now president-elect reiterated his call for member states to contribute at least 3% of their GDP to the alliance, a significant jump from the current 2% target that many countries, including the UK, struggle to meet.
“I’ll insist that every NATO nation must spend at least 3%. You have to go up to 3%—2% is the steal of the century, especially as we’re paying for it.”
— Donald Trump, August 2024
Bolstering Defense Spending
In light of Trump’s demands, Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves are said to be devising a plan to boost UK defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by the spring, when the strategic defense review (SDR) is due. This proactive move is seen as an attempt to find common ground with the incoming US administration and demonstrate Britain’s unwavering commitment to NATO.
However, achieving this target will require difficult trade-offs in other areas of government spending, a reality acknowledged by cabinet minister Darren Jones. While affirming that security and defense remain a top priority, Jones stopped short of committing to the 2.5% goal by the end of the current parliament, underscoring the fiscal challenges ahead.
A United Front for Ukraine
Perhaps the most pressing concern for European leaders is the potential shift in US policy toward the war in Ukraine. Throughout his campaign, Trump touted his ability to bring about a swift end to the conflict, though details of his plans remain vague and, at times, contradictory.
Some Trump advisers have suggested that the president-elect would push for territorial concessions from Ukraine, a position that could strain relations with European allies who have steadfastly supported Kyiv’s sovereignty. Bryan Lanza, a long-time political adviser to Trump, recently commented:
“When Zelenskyy says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace, once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone.”
— Bryan Lanza, Trump adviser
While a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team later clarified that Lanza was not speaking on behalf of the president-elect, such statements have only heightened the sense of uncertainty in European capitals. As Starmer and Macron stand shoulder-to-shoulder on Armistice Day, their unity in supporting Ukraine will send a powerful message to allies and adversaries alike.
Building Bridges in Turbulent Times
Amid the geopolitical turbulence unleashed by Trump’s re-election, experts stress the importance of European allies “mending fences” and forging stronger relationships. Dr. Karin von Hippel, director of the Royal United Services Institute think tank, underscored the symbolic significance of Starmer and Macron’s joint appearance:
“It’s important for the United Kingdom and the EU to mend fences and forge a stronger relationship now that Trump has won. The same applies to UK bilateral relations with European countries. America will no longer be a reliable partner for any European country, including the UK. So as much bridge building and scenario planning that can be done now is critical, including deciding where they will push back on the United States when they disagree.”
— Dr. Karin von Hippel, Director of RUSI
As Starmer and Macron lay wreaths at the Arc de Triomphe and honor the sacrifices of the past, their meeting will also serve as a catalyst for the critical conversations and strategic planning needed to navigate the challenges of the present. In a world where alliances are tested and geopolitical norms upended, the strength and resilience of the Franco-British partnership may well prove to be a cornerstone of stability in an uncertain future.
