As Donald Trump prepares to retake the reins of power in Washington, Ukrainian politicians find themselves grappling with a complex geopolitical puzzle. According to sources close to the situation, while there are concerns about the potential implications of a Trump presidency on the ongoing war effort against Russia, many in Kyiv remain cautiously optimistic that all is not lost.
A Glimmer of Hope Amidst Uncertainty
In the wake of Trump’s election victory over Kamala Harris, an initial 25-minute phone call between the president-elect and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been described as positive in tone. Notably, no specifics of any peace proposals were discussed during the conversation, which included a brief handover to Elon Musk.
This lack of concrete details has given Ukrainian officials some breathing room, allowing them to press their own case before any settled outlines of a peace plan emerge. As one opposition MP, Oleksiy Goncharenko, optimistically noted, “I don’t think that Trump’s victory is a catastrophe. Ukraine is now his business, and if negotiations lead to a disaster, it will be his, like Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.”
The Putin Factor
Complicating matters further is the looming presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump has yet to speak with Putin since his election victory, and Ukrainian leaders are quick to emphasize the complexity of negotiating with the notoriously difficult Russian leader.
At some point, Trump has to present a plan to Putin, and we will see if Putin wants to stick to it. From that moment, there is a new reality.
– Oleksiy Goncharenko, Ukrainian MP
Ukrainian officials hope that Putin’s maximalist demands or his tendency to irritate the famously prickly American leader may ultimately work in their favor. In the meantime, they stress the importance of engaging with the US and shaping American public opinion.
Competing Visions for Peace
As the Trump administration takes shape, various proposals for a peace deal in Ukraine have begun to emerge from senior Republican figures. However, these plans often compete with and contradict one another, leaving much uncertainty about the path forward.
Some, like retired Lt Gen Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, have proposed forcing Ukraine to negotiate by threatening to cut off military aid and freezing the conflict along current frontlines. Others, such as Vice President-elect JD Vance, have suggested allowing Russia to maintain control over the 20% of Ukraine it currently occupies while barring Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Still others, including potential Defense Secretary candidate Mike Pompeo, have advocated for a de facto partition based on current battle lines while simultaneously lifting restrictions on the types of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use. Critically, much will depend on Trump’s appointments to key positions at the State Department, Pentagon, and National Security Council.
Ukraine’s Resolve Amidst Mounting Challenges
As the war grinds on, Ukraine finds itself facing mounting challenges on the battlefield. Russian forces have made significant gains in recent weeks, particularly in the south, where Ukrainian troops have lost as much as 9km of territory in a single week.
Troublingly, leaked figures from the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office reveal that cases of desertion and soldiers going AWOL have doubled compared to the previous year, suggesting a growing weariness among some elements of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The situation remains challenging and shows signs of escalation. The enemy, leveraging its numerical advantage, is continuing offensive actions.
– Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top military commander
Despite these daunting obstacles, a sense of fatalism and resolve persists among many Ukrainians. As Maria Avdeeva, a Kyiv-based fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, put it, “I think Ukrainians have already learned the lesson that we have to count on ourselves” – a sentiment echoed repeatedly across the embattled nation.
An Uncertain Future
As Ukraine braces for the impact of a second Trump presidency, the country finds itself at a critical juncture. With the war showing no signs of abating and the specter of a forced peace deal looming, Ukrainian leaders must navigate a treacherous geopolitical landscape with caution and resolve.
Much will depend on the choices made in Washington in the coming months, as key appointments and policy decisions begin to take shape. For now, Ukraine’s politicians and people alike can only watch and wait, hoping that their hard-fought gains and sacrifices will not be in vain.
