In a move that is sure to send shockwaves through Major League Baseball, the Chiba Lotte Mariners of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league announced their intention to post their young pitching ace, Roki Sasaki, making the 23-year-old phenom available to MLB teams this offseason. Sasaki, who has been dominating NPB since 2021 with his electrifying fastball and devastating splitter, immediately vaults to the top of the free agent class, behind only Juan Soto.
A Prodigy Rises in Japan
Sasaki first burst onto the scene as a high schooler, hitting 101 mph with his fastball. He further cemented his status as a pitching prodigy in 2021 at age 20, when he struck out 19 batters in a perfect game, breaking the NPB record. Scouts have raved about his elite velocity, with a fastball that averaged 99 mph in 2023, and his wipeout splitter that is considered one of the best pitches on the planet.
Roki Sasaki has the most explosive raw stuff I’ve ever seen from a pitcher his age. His fastball and splitter alone would make him a top of the rotation starter in MLB from day one.
– A high-ranking MLB scout
Potential and Questions
Despite his immense talent, there are some questions surrounding Sasaki. His velocity was down a bit in 2023, with his fastball and slider each losing a couple ticks. This coincided with a couple months missed due to an unspecified arm injury, leading to speculation he may have been pitching at less than 100%. Still, even with the slight dip, his stuff remains elite, and a healthy Sasaki could instantly become one of the best pitchers in the world.
A Complex Contract Situation
Sasaki’s unique contract situation makes his free agency case fascinating. As an under-25 player, he is limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from a team’s international pool money, similar to the deal Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels in 2017. This limits his initial earnings, though the allure of potentially cashing in big as a 30-year-old free agent after 7 seasons could make it worthwhile. The timing of his posting also matters significantly:
- If posted before December 15, his bonus is limited to each team’s remaining 2024 international pool space, with $2.5 million the current max available.
- If posted between December 16 and January 15, his bonus pool expands to the full 2025 amounts, ranging from $5.1 to $7.5 million.
The Dodgers are the Favorites
While the uniqueness of the situation makes it an open race, the Dodgers are rumored to be Sasaki’s preferred destination. With their track record of pitcher development, big market allure, and current Japanese stars like Ohtani, they can make a compelling pitch beyond just dollars. They also happen to have the most 2024 pool money available at $2.5M if Sasaki is posted early.
The Yankees, Orioles and Giants could also be strong contenders, especially if Sasaki waits for the 2025 pools to open up in January. There is some chatter he may prefer a smaller market, where he would unequivocally be the face of the rotation, but the Dodgers seem to have the inside track for now.
An Offseason Game-Changer
Regardless of where he lands, Roki Sasaki’s arrival stateside will be the story of the offseason. He has a chance to not only live up to the hype but to exceed it, potentially becoming an MLB ace from the moment he first toes the rubber. For MLB teams looking for a frontline starter who could change the trajectory of their rotation for the next decade, the bidding war for Sasaki’s services will be fierce and fascinating to watch unfold. One of NPB’s brightest young stars is ready to take his talents across the Pacific and shake up the MLB landscape for years to come.
