As delegates gather in Baku, Azerbaijan for the Cop29 climate summit, a sense of urgency and apprehension hangs in the air. The past year has delivered a relentless barrage of climate disasters, from deadly floods in Spain to blistering heatwaves around the globe. Meanwhile, global carbon emissions continue to rise, reaching a staggering 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023 – a record high that is expected to be surpassed by the end of 2024.
Scientists warn that these alarming trends are the result of climate change fueled by the unabated burning of fossil fuels. As atmospheric carbon levels soar to more than 50% above pre-industrial levels, global average temperatures are on track to exceed 1.5°C above baseline – a critical threshold that world leaders had desperately hoped to avoid.
Trump’s Shadow Looms Over Cop29
Casting a further pall over the already somber mood in Baku is the recent election of Donald Trump to the US presidency. Trump, who has previously dismissed climate change as a “big hoax,” is widely expected to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord upon taking office, just as he did during his prior term. As one of the world’s largest emitters, an uncooperative US severely undermines global efforts to rein in emissions.
“There is just the faintest ray of hope now that the world will limit global warming to 1.5C, but Donald Trump may extinguish it,”
said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
Trump’s antagonism toward climate action stands in stark contrast to the increasingly dire warnings from scientists and the UN Secretary General António Guterres, who has declared that the world has moved from an era of global warming to one of “global boiling.” Guterres has pulled no punches, accusing fossil fuel companies of having “humanity by the throat” and charging that continued inaction amounts to “collective suicide.”
Beyond 1.5°C: Facing Devastating Tipping Points
The specter of blowing past the 1.5°C guardrail and even pushing beyond 2°C of warming has experts deeply worried about a cascade of devastating climate tipping points. These could include:
- Destabilization of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets
- Abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost, releasing more greenhouse gases
- Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
- Widespread death of tropical coral reefs
Such tipping points would lock in meters of sea level rise, drive temperatures even higher, worsen droughts and storms, and render large swathes of the planet effectively uninhabitable. Hundreds of millions of people, mostly in developing nations, would be displaced in a world of climate change run amok.
The Urgent Quest for Climate Finance
With the impacts of climate change already being felt by the world’s most vulnerable, a major focus of Cop29 will be mobilizing finance to help developing nations adapt and transition to clean energy. Estimates suggest a staggering $500 billion to $1 trillion per year will be needed from international sources – at least five times current levels.
These funds would be vital for protecting at-risk communities, building resilient infrastructure, standing up clean energy systems, and compensating for loss and damage from climate change driven by emissions from wealthy nations. However, negotiations around such a climate finance package are likely to be fraught and divisive.
Stepping Stones to Cop30 and Beyond
Despite the many headwinds, some remain hopeful that Cop29 can deliver at least a framework for increased climate finance that can be finalized at Cop30 next year in Brazil. “We should look at the meeting in Baku as a stepping stone for Cop30,” said Lord Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute. He noted that successful Cop meetings often come in pairs.
However, with global emissions still rising and climate disasters intensifying by the year, the window for effective action is rapidly closing. The world is still far off track from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement and holding warming to manageable levels.
“With Trump’s win, we now face, at best, a repeat of his last term’s climate inaction – a four-year pause we simply can’t afford in this critical decade.”
said Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
As the Cop29 summit unfolds over the coming days, the future of our civilization hangs in the balance. Will world leaders step up to the enormity of the moment and chart a viable path away from climate catastrophe? Or will the short-sighted political intransigence of figures like Trump consign us to a world of ever-escalating suffering? For the sake of generations to come, we must hope that wisdom and foresight prevail in Baku – before time runs out.
