Are you ready for some football? More importantly, are you ready to draft the ultimate fantasy team? With the 2024 NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to start analyzing the data and projecting which players will give you the best shot at fantasy glory. Today, we’re focusing on the most important position in football (and arguably in fantasy): the quarterback.
The Importance of Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
When it comes to evaluating fantasy quarterbacks, one of the most valuable metrics is Expected Fantasy Points (xFP). This stat strips away a player’s actual production and efficiency and focuses solely on the opportunities they’re given in their offense. By looking at factors like pass attempts, expected completion percentage, target position, and rushing usage, xFP gives us a clearer picture of which QBs are in the best position to succeed fantasy-wise, regardless of their real-life talent level.
2024’s xFP Leaders at QB
So which signal-callers are projected to top the xFP leaderboards in 2024? Let’s count down the top five:
- Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders – The rookie from LSU is expected to take the reins in D.C. and could put up massive numbers in the Commanders’ pass-happy offense.
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – No surprise here. Jackson’s unmatched rushing ability gives him a sky-high fantasy floor, and if the Ravens let him air it out more, watch out.
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers – Purdy shocked the world by leading the Niners to a Super Bowl as a third-stringer last year. Now he has the keys to Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly attack.
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – The former Auburn star landed in an ideal spot in Denver, where new head coach Sean Payton is expected to unleash a high-octane aerial assault.
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Don’t laugh. Mayfield’s reuniting with his college head coach Lincoln Riley in Tampa, and he could be a fantasy comeback player of the year candidate.
Established Stars and Young Guns
Of course, we can’t forget about the household names. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and the newly-minted New York Jet Aaron Rodgers all crack the top 10 in xFP and should be reliable fantasy starters. But there are some intriguing up-and-comers who could crash the party.
“I’m really excited to see what Caleb Williams can do in Chicago. He has incredible arm talent and could put up big numbers if the Bears open up the playbook.”
– ESPN Fantasy Analyst Mike Clay
Rookies C.J. Stroud (Texans) and Caleb Williams (Bears) both land in the top 15 in xFP, as their teams will likely lean on them heavily from day one. And don’t sleep on Justin Fields in Pittsburgh or Jordan Love in Green Bay – both could be primed for breakout campaigns in their new surroundings.
Sleepers and Late-Round Targets
Looking to score a value pick in the later rounds of your draft? Keep an eye on these names:
- Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots – Brissett’s back in Foxborough and could sneakily post QB1 numbers in the Pats’ rebuilt offense.
- Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns – Yes, he’s erratic, but the Browns have surrounded him with speedy playmakers. He could be boom-or-bust gold.
- Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints – The former top recruit has all the tools and will finally get a shot to start in the Big Easy.
Remember, the key to fantasy football success is finding value throughout your draft. Don’t be afraid to zig when others zag, and trust the numbers – xFP chief among them – to guide your decisions. Happy drafting, and may the fantasy gods smile upon your team!
