The moment of truth approaches in the college football universe. On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff selection committee will unveil its inaugural rankings for the 2024 season, providing the first definitive look at how the historic 12-team playoff race is shaking out. After 10 riveting weeks of upsets, breakout performances, and nail-biting conference clashes, the committee’s top 12 is certain to fuel intense debate.
Which teams will earn coveted first-round byes? Can undefeated non-power-conference schools like Central Michigan crack the top 4? Will inconsistent traditional powers cling to the rankings based on brand recognition? As anticipation builds to a fever pitch, let’s project the dozen squads the committee is likely to name the early pacesetters on the road to the national championship.
Undisputed Frontrunners
In the ultra-competitive Big Ten, Oregon has separated itself from the pack with a flawless 9-0 record. The Ducks conquered the top regular-season test the conference had to offer, upending Ohio State in their own Horseshoe stadium on October 12th. Dynamic QB Dillon Gabriel and an Oregon offense that averages 46.6 points per game, combined with a stifling defense allowing just 15.6, give the Ducks the eye-test edge.
Despite that head-to-head loss, the Buckeyes still have a compelling case for #2. Ohio State rebounded emphatically by outlasting Penn State in a defensive duel, 20-13, in front of a “White Out” crowd last Saturday. That road win in a hostile environment should boost OSU over unbeaten Georgia, whose two premier victories over Clemson and Texas came at neutral sites.
Can the ‘Canes and Cougars Crash the Party?
While the Power Five titans battle for supremacy, undefeated Miami and BYU aim to become this year’s Cincinnati – the upstart that shocks the world by making the playoff. The Hurricanes have ridden a prolific offense piloted by Heisman hopeful QB Cam Ward to a perfect record. But a schedule ranked 47th may relegate “The U” to the second playoff tier behind the Ducks and Buckeyes for now.
BYU, which kicked off its Big 12 tenure with an 8-0 start, can tout road wins over name-brand programs like SMU and Kansas State. However, the Cougars must navigate a back-loaded conference schedule featuring trap games against .500 squads to state their case. With only one currently ranked foe left, BYU could get jumped even if it runs the table.
Blue Bloods on the Bubble
College football’s aristocracy finds itself in an unfamiliar position – fighting for playoff survival. Perennial postseason fixtures such as Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, and Penn State all sit on the precarious two-loss bubble. The Crimson Tide’s path to a top-4 seed likely closed with a second defeat Saturday. But the resume-burnishing opportunity of toppling LSU this weekend could keep Bama in the mix for a first-round home game.
Meanwhile, the losses are piling up for brand names that usually have an ironclad grip on their conference races by November. The Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC are cannibalizing themselves, potentially opening the door for outsiders Boise State, Liberty or Louisiana Tech to swoop in. An expanded playoff field means more margin for error, but also more mouths to feed. No result is safe in this season’s chaotic churn.
There’s only one poll that matters now.
Heather Dinich, ESPN
Projecting the Committee’s Priorities
When the selection committee convenes to hammer out its inaugural 12-team ladder, a few key factors will drive the debate:
- How to weigh the dearth of overpowering, undefeated teams beyond the top 3
- To what degree “game control” and dominance will be valued compared to the quality of opponents
- Reconciling #4 – #12, where most contenders have nearly indistinguishable records and varying “good losses”
The committee loves concrete data points like marquee wins and conference titles. But this year, especially in the murky middle, it may have to resort to the nebulous “eye test” and nuanced parsing of quality losses. Buckle up for Tuesday’s big reveal – and the delightfully deafening discourse it unleashes.
Expert Playoff Predictions
ESPN’s college football brain trust projects these 12 teams will top the initial CFP rankings:
- Oregon Ducks
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Miami Hurricanes
- Texas Longhorns
- BYU Cougars
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Boise State Broncos
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Alabama Crimson Tide
Those 12 would yield tantalizing first-round clashes like the Crimson Tide invading the Buckeyes‘ home turf and the upstart Hoosiers getting a crack at the vaunted Longhorns. The quartet in the coveted top 4 would earn byes and the inside track to the national semifinals. But in a season as unpredictable as this, Tuesday’s rankings could be rendered obsolete with one earth-shaking upset.
Clarity awaits as the calendar flips to the pivotal final weeks. Soon, college football’s brightest lights will know exactly where they stand – and what colossal challenges remain on the treacherous trek to playoff immortality. Let the jockeying and the impassioned argumentation commence. At long last, it’s rankings day in America.
