As the United States gears up for the 2024 presidential election, the battle lines are being drawn between the incumbent Kamala Harris and her formidable opponent, Donald Trump. While the state of the economy is often considered the deciding factor in any election, this time around, it may not be the trump card that delivers a victory for either candidate.
The Economic Landscape
There’s no denying that the US economy has faced its fair share of challenges in recent years. Skyrocketing costs of living, from housing and healthcare to childcare and transportation, have left many Americans struggling to make ends meet. The inflationary surge, which has seen food prices alone jump by over 20% in just two years, has hit lower-income households particularly hard.
For Trump, this economic angst among voters is his strongest weapon. Much like the Brexit vote in the UK back in 2016, there’s a palpable desire to kick out the incumbent administration and shake things up. Traveling through swing states like Pennsylvania, it’s sobering to witness the stark contrast between families scraping by and their wealthier neighbors who have few financial worries.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
However, a deeper dive into the economic data reveals a more nuanced picture. By most measures, the US economy under the Biden-Harris administration has actually performed remarkably well. The rate of economic expansion is the envy of many European nations, driven by world-beating industries like pharmaceuticals, technology, financial services, and even some sectors of manufacturing.
Moreover, while prices at the pump may have been a pain point in the past, gas stations across the country are now selling fuel at near pre-pandemic low levels. This is a fact that the Harris campaign will undoubtedly seek to highlight as the election draws closer.
Beyond the Economy: Healthcare and Education
But perhaps the most compelling argument for Harris lies outside the realm of pure economics. According to close sources, the Vice President plans to make healthcare and education the centerpieces of her campaign, two issues that resonate deeply with voters in key swing states.
On the healthcare front, Harris can point to the Biden administration’s efforts to expand access and affordability. They have streamlined Medicaid application processes, reduced waiting periods, eliminated lifetime benefit caps for those with chronic conditions, and scrapped work requirements in several states. Harris herself has pledged to go even further, promising to increase rural hospital access and bolster maternal health coverage.
Every budget Trump proposed as president pressed for deep cuts in federal funding for Medicaid, ranging from $780bn to $1.1tn over 10 years, averaging 20.5% of federal support for the programme in those years.
Robert J Shapiro, economist and former advisor to Presidents Clinton and Obama
This stance stands in stark contrast to Trump’s record. As economist Robert J Shapiro points out, every budget proposal during Trump’s presidency called for slashing federal Medicaid funding by hundreds of billions of dollars. Given that nearly 16 million residents in key swing states rely on Medicaid, including 3 million in rural areas and 12 million without college degrees, this could be a deciding factor for many voters.
Education tells a similar story. Under Biden and Harris, federal support for primary and secondary schools has soared by 44%. Trump, meanwhile, pushed for deep cuts to education funding every year he was in office, even amid a global pandemic. Now, he’s vowing to defund and abolish the Department of Education entirely, a position that aligns with the controversial conservative policy framework known as Project 2025.
The Specter of Project 2025
Project 2025, a comprehensive conservative policy wishlist, looms large over the upcoming election. Crafted by right-wing think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, it calls for a dramatic expansion of presidential power and an ultra-conservative social agenda. Central to its vision is the wholesale privatization of government services, from education and healthcare to environmental protection.
While the Trump campaign has tried to distance itself from Project 2025, even promising to bar its supporters from holding official positions, the manifesto remains a guiding light for many of the GOP’s biggest donors. This sets up a clear contrast between the candidates on issues like healthcare, education, and the environment, a gap that Harris will seek to exploit in critical swing states.
The Path to Victory
Ultimately, in an election where the margin of victory may come down to just a few thousand votes in a handful of battleground states, bread-and-butter issues like healthcare and education could be the key to propelling Kamala Harris into the White House. By focusing on these tangible, everyday concerns rather than abstract economic indicators, her campaign has an opportunity to cut through the noise and connect with voters on a deeply personal level.
Of course, the road ahead is long, and the challenges are many. Trump remains a formidable opponent with a loyal base and a knack for controlling the narrative. But if Harris can keep the focus on her vision for a more equitable, accessible, and opportunity-rich America, she may just find that the path to victory runs not through Wall Street or Silicon Valley, but through the schools, hospitals, and homes of Main Street USA.
