As the United States gears up for another contentious presidential election, a recent poll sheds light on how European voters view the two main contenders: incumbent vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. The YouGov Eurotrack survey, conducted in seven western European countries, reveals a strong preference for a Harris victory, even among some far-right voters. However, the same poll also highlights a lack of confidence in a Democratic win and widespread expectations of post-election violence should Trump be defeated.
Overwhelming Support for Harris Across Europe
The survey, which polled voters in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Denmark, found that Kamala Harris was the preferred candidate in every country, often by substantial margins. Danish voters were the most enthusiastic about a potential Harris presidency at 81%, followed by Germany at 71%, Spain at 65%, France at 62%, and the UK at 61%. Even in Italy, where support for Harris was the lowest among the surveyed countries, 46% still favored her over Trump – nearly double the percentage of those who preferred the Republican candidate.
Left-Leaning and Centrist Voters Unite Behind Harris
Unsurprisingly, Harris enjoys the strongest backing among Europe’s left-leaning and centrist voters. Support for the Democratic candidate reaches 80% to 90% among supporters of parties such as the Social Democrats and Greens in Germany, Sumar in Spain, Emmanuel Macron’s party in France, the Social Democrats in Sweden, and the Liberal Democrats in the UK. However, even traditional center-right parties’ voters prefer Harris over Trump, often by significant margins:
- 89% of Venstre voters in Denmark
- 78% of Christian Democrat (CDU/CSU) voters in Germany
- 66% of People’s Party voters in Spain
- 58% of Conservative Party voters in Britain
Some Far-Right Voters Break Ranks
Perhaps most intriguingly, the poll reveals that even among western Europeans who recently voted for far-right, nationalist, and populist parties, sizeable numbers would rather see Harris elected than Trump. While the former president remains the favored candidate among far-right voters in Spain, the UK, Germany, and Italy, the margins are often narrow. For example, 54% of Vox voters in Spain prefer Trump, compared to 23% who favor Harris.
Meanwhile, in Sweden and France, far-right voters buck the trend entirely. Among Sweden Democrat voters, 49% say they would prefer a Harris victory, compared to just 31% who favor Trump. Similarly, 46% of those who voted for Marine Le Pen in the 2022 French presidential election would rather see Harris win, while only 31% prefer Trump.
Tempered Expectations and Fears of Violence
Despite the widespread preference for a Harris victory, European voters are less confident that their wish will become reality. The general expectation across the surveyed countries is that Harris will emerge victorious, but the percentages are notably lower than her overall support. They range from 43% in Italy and 46% in Sweden and the UK to 52% in Spain and 61% in Germany.
Moreover, if Trump is defeated at the ballot box, a majority of western Europeans anticipate a violent reaction. In Denmark, a staggering 73% think there will “definitely” or “probably” be violence if Harris wins. Between 62% and 67% share this view in most other surveyed countries, with Italy being the exception at 47%.
Assessing Biden’s Legacy and Harris’ Potential
When asked to evaluate President Joe Biden’s performance, the most common assessment across the surveyed countries was “average,” with percentages ranging from 39% in Britain to 46% in Spain and 47% in Germany. However, Europeans seem to believe that Harris would do a better job. The prevailing view in each country is that the vice president would make either a “great” or “good” head of state, with 64% of Danes, 57% of Germans, and 45% of Spaniards holding this opinion.
In contrast, expectations for a potential second Trump term are markedly worse. The most common view, ranging from 48% in Italy to 77% in Denmark, is that the Republican candidate would make a “poor” or “terrible” president.
Implications for Transatlantic Relations
As the US presidential race heats up, the YouGov poll offers valuable insights into European public opinion. The overwhelming support for Harris, even among some far-right voters, suggests a strong desire for a return to more stable and predictable transatlantic relations after the tumultuous Trump years. However, the tempered expectations of a Harris victory and the widespread anticipation of post-election violence underscore the deep-seated concerns about the health of American democracy and the potential for further political upheaval.
As Europe grapples with its own challenges, from the ongoing war in Ukraine to the rise of populist movements, the outcome of the US election will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for the future of the transatlantic partnership. While a Harris presidency would likely be welcomed by most European leaders, the poll serves as a reminder that repairing the damage done to US-European relations in recent years will require more than just a change of occupant in the White House.
