As savvy NFL bettors know, the real value often lies in the lesser-known prop bets that fly under the radar of the casual gambler. While the Vegas sharps and public money pour into sides and totals, there are some absolute gems to be found if you know where to look in the wide world of props. And in Week 9, the props are popping with value for those willing to do a little digging.
Defensive Player Props to Pounce On
According to analytics expert Seth Walder of ESPN, there are two defensive player props that have particularly juicy value this week based on his model.
First up, Walder is eyeing the under 8.5 tackles + assists for Texans linebacker Neville Hewitt at -105. Hewitt has been pressed into an every-down role the past two weeks with starter Azeez Al-Shaair out, but Al-Shaair remains sidelined for Thursday’s tilt with the Jets. The model is only projecting 7.5 combined tackles for Hewitt based on his average tackle rates since 2019.
But the real kicker is the return of Henry To’oTo’o and acquisition of Devin White in recent weeks for Houston. Their presence clouds Hewitt’s snap count projection, making the under even juicier at a very reasonable -105 price.
Walder also likes under 0.5 sacks for Jets stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at -155. While Williams has been on a heater of late with 2.5 sacks over his last 3 games, his season-long numbers are just OK. More importantly, the matchup is sneakily tough, as Desmond Stroud has only taken sacks at a roughly league-average clip.
The model makes the fair price on the under a whopping -222 based on Williams’ full-season stats, the low sack rate for defensive tackles in general, and Stroud’s sack avoidance. Lay the -155 with confidence on the big man coming up empty in the sack department.
Receiving Yards Alternate Lines
Shifting to the offensive side of the ball, Ravens speedster Zay Flowers looks primed to torch a vulnerable Broncos secondary. The model loves over 70 receiving yards for Flowers at +210, especially with the acquisition of route-running maven Diontae Johnson.
Flowers already has an exceptionally high median yardage prop of 49.5, but the Johnson addition means Flowers will man the slot more and avoid shutdown corner Pat Surtain on the outside. With a 10% target rate, Surtain is an absolute black hole for receivers, so Flowers escaping that matchup is huge.
All the targets siphoned from the Surtain side have to go somewhere, and a healthy chunk should flow to Flowers over the middle against a much softer underbelly of the Denver defense. At better than 2-to-1, it’s a phenomenal value prop.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Another week, another chance to bet the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson to find paydirt at plus-money. The model keeps coming back to Jefferson anytime his odds to score drift into plus territory, making him a whopping -186 to score in Week 9.
Despite not scoring last week against the Rams, JJ racked up a massive 8-115-0 line on 9 targets. He leads the league in receiving yardage share at a gargantuan 40% of Minnesota’s entire aerial pie. Jefferson also ranks top-6 in:
- Yards per route run
- Completed air yards
- Route participation
His unrivaled combination of elite volume and efficiency scream positive touchdown regression, especially against a tissue-soft Detroit secondary. Lock in the -125 on Jefferson to score ASAP before it steams to -150 or worse by kickoff.
Interceptions Thrown
In a sneakily pass-heavy Giants offense that ranks top-10 in designed pass rate, underperforming QB Daniel Jones looks ripe for a multi-interception meltdown as a 4-point road dog to the Cowboys.
Jones has only tossed 5 picks this year for a 1.6% INT rate, but the model still hangs its hat on last year’s ugly 2.9% interception rate and Jones’ performance under pressure.
“Jones ranks just 26th in QBR this season. With the G-Men looking likely to play from behind and force Jones into desperation mode, I’m hammering over 0.5 INTs at even-money +100.”
– Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
The model sets the true odds of a Jones INT at -116, so grabbing +100 on the over is a value bet all day.
Bonus Bets: Alternate Totals
Looking to go big on a long shot? Try the Cowboys-Falcons over 56.5 at +150. ESPN’s fancy FPI+ model that translates advanced analytics to the betting market tags the fair odds at +124 due to some compelling factors:
- Evenly-matched QBs that can hang with each other score for score
- Bad defenses on both sides
- Perfect conditions in the weather-proof dome in Atlanta
It’s an enticing recipe for a back-and-forth shootout that could sail over the total. At +150, it’s a worthy dice roll to round out your Week 9 card.
While the mainstream masses toil away in the standard betting markets, take the road less traveled and bet these under-the-radar props. Your bankroll will thank you on Tuesday morning.
The model makes the fair price on the under a whopping -222 based on Williams’ full-season stats, the low sack rate for defensive tackles in general, and Stroud’s sack avoidance. Lay the -155 with confidence on the big man coming up empty in the sack department.
Receiving Yards Alternate Lines
Shifting to the offensive side of the ball, Ravens speedster Zay Flowers looks primed to torch a vulnerable Broncos secondary. The model loves over 70 receiving yards for Flowers at +210, especially with the acquisition of route-running maven Diontae Johnson.
Flowers already has an exceptionally high median yardage prop of 49.5, but the Johnson addition means Flowers will man the slot more and avoid shutdown corner Pat Surtain on the outside. With a 10% target rate, Surtain is an absolute black hole for receivers, so Flowers escaping that matchup is huge.
All the targets siphoned from the Surtain side have to go somewhere, and a healthy chunk should flow to Flowers over the middle against a much softer underbelly of the Denver defense. At better than 2-to-1, it’s a phenomenal value prop.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Another week, another chance to bet the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson to find paydirt at plus-money. The model keeps coming back to Jefferson anytime his odds to score drift into plus territory, making him a whopping -186 to score in Week 9.
Despite not scoring last week against the Rams, JJ racked up a massive 8-115-0 line on 9 targets. He leads the league in receiving yardage share at a gargantuan 40% of Minnesota’s entire aerial pie. Jefferson also ranks top-6 in:
- Yards per route run
- Completed air yards
- Route participation
His unrivaled combination of elite volume and efficiency scream positive touchdown regression, especially against a tissue-soft Detroit secondary. Lock in the -125 on Jefferson to score ASAP before it steams to -150 or worse by kickoff.
Interceptions Thrown
In a sneakily pass-heavy Giants offense that ranks top-10 in designed pass rate, underperforming QB Daniel Jones looks ripe for a multi-interception meltdown as a 4-point road dog to the Cowboys.
Jones has only tossed 5 picks this year for a 1.6% INT rate, but the model still hangs its hat on last year’s ugly 2.9% interception rate and Jones’ performance under pressure.
“Jones ranks just 26th in QBR this season. With the G-Men looking likely to play from behind and force Jones into desperation mode, I’m hammering over 0.5 INTs at even-money +100.”
– Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
The model sets the true odds of a Jones INT at -116, so grabbing +100 on the over is a value bet all day.
Bonus Bets: Alternate Totals
Looking to go big on a long shot? Try the Cowboys-Falcons over 56.5 at +150. ESPN’s fancy FPI+ model that translates advanced analytics to the betting market tags the fair odds at +124 due to some compelling factors:
- Evenly-matched QBs that can hang with each other score for score
- Bad defenses on both sides
- Perfect conditions in the weather-proof dome in Atlanta
It’s an enticing recipe for a back-and-forth shootout that could sail over the total. At +150, it’s a worthy dice roll to round out your Week 9 card.
While the mainstream masses toil away in the standard betting markets, take the road less traveled and bet these under-the-radar props. Your bankroll will thank you on Tuesday morning.
