A titanic tilt with major playoff implications kicks off Week 9 in the NFL, as the surging Houston Texans (6-2) visit the slumping New York Jets (2-6) on Halloween night. Despite their records heading in opposite directions, oddsmakers have the desperate Jets as slight 2.5-point home favorites in a game both teams urgently need.
Texans Thriving, But Tested Without Top Target
The Texans have defied expectations to seize control of the AFC South at midseason. Fueled by a punishing ground game led by resurgent star Joe Mixon and the dynamic aerial connection between young guns C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell, Houston has won four of their last five to build real postseason momentum.
However, a massive blow struck last week, as go-to receiver Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending torn ACL. How Stroud and the offense adjust without their alpha wideout will be crucial to sustaining their surprising playoff push. Rookie Dell and veteran tight end Dalton Schultz must step up beginning on the prime time Halloween stage.
Jets Desperate to Save Spiraling Season
Sitting at 2-6 and losers of five straight was not the script for these Jets after an encouraging 2-1 start. The Aaron Rodgers experiment in New York has yielded far more tricks than treats so far in a nightmarish season.
This isn’t what I signed up for, not at all. The way we’re playing is unacceptable. We have to find a way to turn this around, and it’s got to start this week. There’s too much talent here to be 2-6.
– Aaron Rodgers, via a source close to the Jets
The future Hall of Famer has struggled mightily to connect with a young receiving corps headlined by Garrett Wilson. A once-imposing defense has also sprung leaks. Many are beginning to wonder if Rodgers’ best days are behind him at age 36. But he has an opportunity to silence doubters and kick-start a second half turnaround against a Texans defense that has been solid yet unspectacular.
Betting Odds & Trends To Watch
The widely-held perception entering this Halloween clash is that the Jets should win, but there’s little confidence they will. Some eye-opening trends tilt this toss-up in Houston’s favor:
- Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 overall
- Jets are 0-4 outright and ATS vs winning teams in 2024
- Texans are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach DeMeco Ryans
- Texans are 13-28-2 ATS all-time in prime time (lots of value as a dog!)
Most concerning for the Jets: They’re a horrific 1-6 ATS in their last 7 prime time appearances and 7-16 ATS under the lights since 2016. This team has consistently wilted on the big stage. A Halloween night fight for their season seems like a nightmarish spot against an ascending squad in the Texans.
Compelling Player Props & Predictions
In a game that could go either way, the player props market provides plenty of intrigue. Here are some that caught my eye:
- C.J. Stroud over 224.5 passing yards (-135): The Jets’ secondary has been torched of late and Stroud will air it out early and often without Diggs.
- Aaron Rodgers under 224.5 passing yards (+110): A-Rod faces a tough Texans pass D allowing the 5th-fewest passing yards. Good value on the under.
- Tank Dell over 59.5 receiving yards (+105): The speedy rookie should be peppered with targets in Diggs’ absence and can break a big play.
- Garrett Wilson under 59.5 receiving yards (-110): Wilson has struggled with drops and Rodgers isn’t clicking with his alleged No. 1 target.
In terms of a side, I actually lean Texans +2.5. Getting points with the better team is great value, even on the road on a short week. Mixon and the run game travel and should find success vs a reeling Jets front. Houston is also 5-1 ATS under Ryans catching points away from home – they relish the underdog role.
The Texans are resilient and well-coached; they have belief. The Jets are fragile and desperate. I’m rolling with the team playing better football with more margin for error. In a toss-up, grab the points and don’t lay juice road favorite on an unreliable team. To kick off Halloween weekend, give me the live spookiness of the upstart Texans delivering another primetime scare to the home chalk.
Prediction: Texans 23, Jets 20
