In an unexpected turn of events, the influential International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given its stamp of approval to the UK’s 2024 budget, unveiled by Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid a backdrop of economic stagnation and strained public finances. The Washington-based financial watchdog praised the “sustainable” tax rises and increased investment in public services, marking a significant shift from the austerity measures that have dominated British fiscal policy in recent years.
According to a spokesperson from the IMF, the organization “supports the envisaged reduction in the deficit over the medium term, including by sustainably raising revenue.” This endorsement comes as a boost to Reeves, who has faced criticism from some quarters for increasing taxes and borrowing during a time of economic uncertainty.
A Decisive Shift Towards Investment
The Resolution Foundation, a respected UK thinktank, described the budget as a “decisive shift” from the planned cuts set out by the previous government. The analysis suggests that the Chancellor’s approach will lead to better-funded public services and greater public investment, financed through a combination of higher taxes and increased borrowing.
Mike Brewer, interim chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, acknowledged the difficult balancing act Reeves had to perform, given the “profound and often conflicting challenges” facing the nation, from “failing public services to perilous public finances, weak growth and stagnating living standards.”
Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain?
The Foundation’s analysis suggests that while the budget will deliver better-funded public services in the short term, particularly in areas such as education, healthcare, and justice, it comes at the cost of a further squeeze on living standards. The rise in employer National Insurance is expected to dampen wage growth, placing additional pressure on households already grappling with the rising cost of living.
However, the budget’s £100bn boost to public capital spending has been touted as a potential game-changer for Britain’s long-term economic prospects. As Brewer notes, “the hope is that this short-term pain will eventually turn into a long-term living standards gain.”
Navigating Uncertain Waters
The Chancellor’s task is made all the more challenging by the uncertain global economic landscape. The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain ultra-low interest rates, citing the need to monitor risks to the fragile domestic recovery, underscores the delicate balance policymakers must strike between supporting growth and managing inflationary pressures.
As for the timing of the next rate hike, we have no preset idea. We will scrutinise data available at the time of each policy meeting, and update our view on the economy and outlook, in deciding policy.
– Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan
Back in the UK, the success of Reeves’ budget will largely depend on whether the gamble on investment and growth pays off. If it fails to revitalize the economy, future budgets may prove even more challenging, potentially necessitating further tax rises to maintain fiscal stability.
A Glimmer of Hope?
Amidst the uncertainty, there are some positive signs. Shell’s better-than-expected profits for the third quarter, driven by higher gas sales offsetting weaker refining and oil trading revenues, suggest that the energy sector may provide a much-needed boost to the UK’s coffers. The company’s decision to buy back a further $3.5bn of shares over the next three months also hints at a degree of confidence in the future.
As the UK navigates the uncharted waters of a post-pandemic, post-Brexit world, the 2024 budget represents a bold attempt to chart a new course for the nation’s economy. While the IMF’s endorsement provides a measure of validation for Reeves’ approach, the ultimate test will be whether it can deliver the sustainable growth and improved living standards that have proved so elusive in recent years. For now, all eyes will be on the forthcoming economic data, as the country holds its breath to see if this gamble pays off.
