As the newly elected Starmer government stumbles through its first 100 days, one looming challenge threatens to swallow its agenda whole: the gaping budget black hole. Far worse than anticipated, this fiscal abyss has left Chancellor Rachel Reeves grasping for solutions, her hands tied by pre-election promises not to raise key taxes. But with limited options and time running out, will she be forced to break those vows or risk letting the deficit spiral out of control?
A Bleak Inheritance
While Starmer and Reeves have been quick to blame their predecessors for the dire state of the nation’s finances, some argue they have only themselves to blame for painting themselves into a corner. In their zeal to win voter support, Labour rashly pledged not to increase rates on income tax, national insurance, and VAT – the very tools they now need to tackle the deficit.
Beware of the OBE – the One Big Explanation. For Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the one big explanation for their troubles is ‘the inheritance’ – far worse than they expected.
– According to a political commentator
Haunted by the Past
Insiders suggest Starmer and Reeves are still haunted by Labour’s shock defeat in 1992, blamed largely on fears of a “tax bombshell,” as well as the more recent market backlash to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s unfunded tax cuts. But in their desperation to avoid spooking voters or investors, they may have backed themselves into an impossible position.
A sensible response would have been to enter this year’s election campaign with a manifesto that emphasized the scale of the problems they expected to inherit if they won, but which did not commit them to specific plans for taxation.
– According to a close source
Breaking Promises, Offending Investors
Now, as Reeves prepares to deliver a pivotal budget, she finds herself trapped between a rock and a hard place. Unwilling to renege on Labour’s tax pledges but lacking other revenue-raising options, she risks alienating the very investors she hopes to woo while still falling short of filling the fiscal void.
It would have been wiser to use her horror at the state of the books as an excuse to break the commitment on tax rates. But there it is. She is hoist with her own petard.
– According to an economic analyst
The Brexit Millstone
Compounding the challenge is Starmer’s steadfast refusal to reconsider Brexit, despite estimates that leaving the European Union has cost the UK up to £44 billion in lost investment. By ruling out rejoining the single market or customs union, the government is denying itself a potent source of economic growth at a time when it is sorely needed.
The UK in a Changing Europe calculates that we have potentially lost up to £44bn of investment as a consequence of our exclusion from membership of the European Investment Bank.
A Ticking Clock
As budget day looms, Reeves finds herself in a race against time to craft a fiscal plan that can plug the hole without breaking promises or scaring off investors. But with her options limited and the stakes sky-high, she may be forced to make some tough choices – and face the political fallout.
The coming weeks will test the mettle of this fledgling government as it tries to navigate the treacherous waters of a budget crisis with one hand tied behind its back. Can Starmer and Reeves find a way to balance the books without betraying their word or dooming their agenda? The clock is ticking, and the nation is watching.
