As war rages on in Ukraine, a geopolitical storm is brewing that threatens to redraw the security map of Europe. With the revelation that the Trump administration is pursuing peace talks with Russia, potentially cutting out European leaders, shockwaves are reverberating across the transatlantic alliance. Scrambling to respond and safeguard their seat at the negotiating table, top European officials are now planning an emergency summit in Paris.
Europe’s Worst Fears Realized?
For months, European leaders have watched warily as President Donald Trump has taken an increasingly unilateral approach to the war in Ukraine. His surprise phone call with Vladimir Putin last week, in which the two agreed to start ceasefire negotiations, confirmed their deepest anxieties: that Washington may try to impose a peace settlement over the heads of its European allies.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Europe. Any deal that ends the fighting could profoundly impact the continent’s security architecture for generations. At risk are fundamental questions about Ukraine’s future alignment, Russia’s role in the European order, and even the cohesion of NATO itself. For European capitals, being excluded from the process is simply unacceptable.
An Unorthodox Approach
Trump’s Ukraine envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg didn’t mince words in Munich: Europe will be consulted, but ultimately shut out of the upcoming talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. His message was blunt:
“To my European friends, I would say: ‘Get into the debate, not by complaining that you might, yes or no, be at the table, but by coming up with concrete proposals, ideas, ramp up [defence] spending’…”
Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine
For many European officials, it was a bitter pill to swallow. After supporting Ukraine militarily and economically for over a year, the idea of being relegated to the sidelines as the war’s endgame unfolds is galling. “There’s no way in which we can have discussions or negotiations about Ukraine’s future or European security without Europeans,” fumed Finland’s President Alexander Stubb.
Eleventh Hour Diplomacy
Faced with the prospect of a U.S.-Russia deal being hashed out in their absence, European leaders are racing to coordinate a common position. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for an emergency summit early next week in Paris, likely to be attended by leaders from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland and top EU and NATO officials.
On the agenda: how to avoid being sidelined, what security guarantees to seek for Ukraine, and crucially, how to persuade a skeptical Washington that any viable peace requires Europe’s full participation. “If Europeans want to have a say, make yourself relevant,” NATO chief Mark Rutte bluntly advised.
Tough Choices Ahead
Even as they scramble to forge a united front, European leaders face agonizing tradeoffs. Endorsing Kyiv’s desire for NATO membership could torpedo any chance of a settlement with Moscow. Accepting neutrality for Ukraine, as Russia demands, risks betraying a close partner. And failing to significantly boost European defense budgets, as Trump insists, could badly strain the transatlantic alliance.
As British Prime Minister Keir Starmer prepares to bring Europe’s concerns directly to President Trump in Washington, the path ahead is treacherous. The decisions made in the coming days—in Munich, Paris, Kyiv and Moscow—will likely define the European order for years to come. The margin for error is vanishingly thin.
With the fate of Ukraine hanging in the balance and the future of the transatlantic partnership on the line, Europe finds itself in a make-or-break moment. Can the continent’s leaders rise to the challenge, or will their worst fears of irrelevance be realized? As the world’s gaze turns to the gilded palaces and situation rooms where this drama will unfold, only one thing is certain: the stakes have never been higher.
