As Belarusians head to the polls today, the outcome of the presidential election is already a foregone conclusion. Alexander Lukashenko, the mustachioed strongman who has ruled the former Soviet republic with an iron fist since 1994, is certain to declare himself the winner once again. In a blatant mockery of democracy, Lukashenko’s government has systematically jailed, silenced, or exiled all viable opposition candidates, leaving only token challengers on the ballot.
For the 9.4 million people living under Europe’s last dictatorship, this sham election marks another grim milestone in Lukashenko’s relentless consolidation of power. The 68-year-old former collective farm boss, who once vowed to “whack” protestors with his feudal-style truncheons, has steadily tightened his stranglehold on Belarus over three decades. Backed by his allies in the Kremlin and shielded by a ruthless KGB-style security apparatus, Lukashenko has crushed all dissent while keeping Belarus locked in a Soviet-era time warp.
Opposition Decimated, Criticism Criminalized
In the lead-up to today’s vote, Lukashenko’s regime unleashed a brutal crackdown on the already-beleaguered opposition. The country’s most prominent opposition figures, including activist Sergei Tikhanovsky and politician Viktor Babariko, were jailed on trumped-up charges. Others, like Tikhanovsky’s wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in 2020, were forced to flee abroad. Criticizing the government is now effectively criminalized.
“All our opponents and enemies should understand: do not hope, we will never repeat what we had in 2020,” Lukashenko warned ominously.
That chilling statement referred to the unprecedented mass protests that erupted after the blatantly rigged 2020 election. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Belarusians poured into the streets demanding freedom and an end to Lukashenko’s tyrannical reign. The regime responded with a vicious police crackdown, arresting over 35,000 people. Horrific footage emerged of detained protesters being savagely beaten in squalid prisons.
Exiled and Imprisoned
In the wake of that brutally suppressed uprising, an estimated 300,000 Belarusians have fled into exile, mostly to neighboring Poland and Lithuania. Those who dared to stay and continue resisting have been ruthlessly persecuted. Over 1,000 political prisoners languish in Lukashenko’s jails. Many are held incommunicado, their fates unknown.
“The authorities’ aim is to silent all voices of opposition by any means,” said exiled opposition leader Tikhanovskaya. “This vote is a farce.”
Indeed, today’s election is a grim farce, the final act in Lukashenko’s methodical destruction of Belarus’s pro-democracy movement. Gone are the days when Belarusians could dare to imagine a freer future. A suffocating climate of fear now pervades the country as Lukashenko’s goons keep watch for any flicker of dissent.
The Kremlin’s Puppet
Lukashenko’s ability to so thoroughly dismantle Belarus’s civil society and terrorize its population into submission is largely thanks to the unwavering support of his key ally: Russian President Vladimir Putin. Once a wily geopolitical player who tried to balance between East and West, Lukashenko is now firmly in Moscow’s pocket, dependent on Kremlin backing to maintain his grip on power.
That dependence has come at a heavy price for Belarus’s sovereignty and security. Lukashenko has allowed Putin to station Russian troops and even tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil. Belarus has become a staging ground for Russia’s war on Ukraine, its territory used to launch devastating attacks on its southern neighbor. The two military allies now conduct joint combat drills and even manufacture weapons together.
“Belarus is not just an ally of Russia now, but a vassal state of the Kremlin,” lamented Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian diplomat now in exile. “Our independence has been completely undermined by Lukashenko’s reliance on Putin.”
The Last Soviet Dictatorship
As Lukashenko begins his sixth term, Belarus remains trapped in a Soviet-style dictatorship, an oppressive relic out of step with the rest of Europe. The state-dominated economy is largely unreformed, propped up by Russian subsidies. Lukashenko clings to Soviet iconography, having scrapped the country’s traditional white-red-white flag years ago. KGB still prowls the streets. In Lukashenko’s neo-Soviet dystopia, the clocks stopped in 1994.
- No free media: All independent media outlets have been liquidated.
- Censored internet: Online criticism is aggressively policed and punished.
- Rubber-stamp parliament: Regime loyalists and token “opposition” fill rigged seats.
- Pervasive surveillance state: Security services monitor citizens’ every move.
For the Belarusian people, the dream of joining the European community of democracies now seems more distant than ever. As millions cast their meaningless ballots today, many will privately wonder if they will live to see a post-Lukashenko Belarus. Will a new generation eventually rise up to finish what the protestors of 2020 began? Or will Lukashenko’s totalitarian terror state, with Putin’s backing, snuff out Belarus’s flickering hopes for good?
Only time will tell if Belarus can break free from the shackles of Europe’s last dictatorship. For now, Lukashenko will revel in his sham electoral triumph, a crowning glory in his 30-year reign of repression. But like all dictators, his downfall may come when he least expects it, through cracks not yet visible. Even the most ruthless tyranny cannot rule forever.
