In the scorching heat of Pakistan’s arid Balochistan province, the small port city of Gwadar was once heralded as the jewel in the crown of China’s grand “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). With soaring ambitions to transform this impoverished fishing town into a thriving commercial hub rivaling Dubai, China poured in a staggering $62 billion across an array of mega-projects – from the gleaming new Gwadar International Airport to a sprawling deepwater port.
Yet, as the ribbon was cut on the China-funded airport this January, the absence of Chinese officials at the ceremony signaled trouble brewing beneath the veneer of progress. Gwadar, far from the promised land of prosperity, has become a city under siege – with heavily guarded enclaves for Chinese workers, security checkpoints choking the streets, and terror attacks targeting the very infrastructure meant to uplift the region.
The Souring of China-Pakistan Ties
The BRI, China’s trillion-dollar transcontinental infrastructure initiative, was meant to be a win-win proposition – offering Pakistan much-needed investment to boost its flailing economy while granting China coveted access to strategic trade routes. In 2015, the two allies embarked on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project, with grandiose visions of mutual prosperity.
However, a decade on, the cracks in this partnership have become glaringly apparent. Promised development has failed to materialize for local residents, with restricted access to their own shores and livelihoods disrupted by Chinese-operated projects. From fishermen deprived of their traditional fishing grounds to the looming specter of a donkey slaughterhouse for Chinese medicine exports, resentment has reached a boiling point.
We have lost the entire sea. When we go fishing, it feels like we are going there as thieves and hiding ourselves.
Dad Karim, 70-year-old Gwadar fisherman
The Specter of Militant Backlash
This simmering discontent has fueled a violent militant insurgency led by separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army, which accuse China of exploiting the region. A spate of deadly attacks on Chinese nationals, including the brazen assault near Karachi airport last October, has left Beijing on edge. With swathes of Chinese workers pulled from projects and any arrival now prompting military-grade lockdowns, CPEC hangs in limbo.
Chinese officials have openly voiced frustration at Pakistan’s inability to quell the threats, as the countries grapple with how to salvage their fraying ties. Wang Shengjie, China’s top diplomat in Pakistan, leveled a scathing rebuke:
If the security is not improved, who would come and work in this environment? There is hatred against the Chinese in Gwadar and Balochistan… Some evil forces are against the CPEC, and they want to sabotage it.
Wang Shengjie, China’s Political Secretary to Pakistan
Unrealized Economic Potential
Meanwhile, lingering questions persist over the economic viability of the very projects at the heart of CPEC. As Asia’s largest airport sits idle and the deepwater port remains devoid of commercial traffic, many fear these ventures are doomed to become “white elephants” – abandoned relics of misguided ambition. Critics argue that Pakistan’s policymakers pushed for flashy mega-projects that lacked sound economic rationale and supporting infrastructure.
For its part, China has scaled back some of its initial CPEC commitments and remains wary of sinking more funds into an increasingly volatile environment. Despite Pakistan’s pleas for an additional $17 billion in investments, Beijing has responded tepidly. As one Pakistani official lamented, “China wants to have the presence of PLA troops to protect their workers… Moreover, they want to have Gwadar port for their navy.”
The Geopolitical Chess Game
Underpinning the CPEC’s woes is a complex web of geopolitical rivalries. The U.S. and India, both viewing China’s expanding influence as a security threat, have pressured Pakistan to limit Chinese involvement. Notably, American intervention is believed to have scuttled a major deal for a Chinese company to acquire a stake in Pakistan’s K-Electric utility.
Caught between the competing demands of its allies, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious balancing act. Even as it courts favor with Washington, alienating Beijing could spell economic disaster for the cash-strapped nation with few alternative lifelines.
The Unraveling of a Grand Vision
As the security crisis deepens and economic woes mount, the future of China’s once-vaunted Belt and Road ambitions in Pakistan appears increasingly uncertain. With billions already sunk and its strategic interests at stake, China can ill-afford to see its flagship project unravel. Yet, without a drastic course correction to win over local hearts and minds, the grand vision of a thriving Gwadar – and with it, the promise of a new era of Sino-Pakistani prosperity – may be slipping away.
For now, in this windswept corner of Balochistan, the gleaming new airport stands as a poignant symbol of the challenges that lie ahead – a would-be gateway to prosperity, hemmed in by the very forces it was meant to overcome. As one Pakistani official mused, “The Chinese now have this huge stake in Pakistan. They can’t afford for it not to work out.” The question remains: at what cost, and to whose benefit?
